Terrance Ferguson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Terrance Ferguson is a young tight end on the Los Angeles Rams roster with a full 2025 season on record. In that season he caught 11 of 25 targets for 231 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. The three scores are the clearest argument in his favor: touchdown production at tight end is volatile and scarce, and Ferguson demonstrated he can find the end zone when targeted. His three-year aggregate stats match his 2025 line exactly, which means 2025 was his first meaningful NFL action. That makes him a developmental option with a real touchdown floor already established.

What the model projects

The projection is 69.6 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. Ferguson ranks #216 overall and TE27 by draft value, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -51.1, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The headline number of 69.6 points reflects a modest role, consistent with his 2025 target share of 25 looks on the season.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide, which is expected for a player with limited NFL history. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons land at 24.2 points, a near-zero fantasy contribution. The 25th percentile is 45.0 points, still well below usable weekly production. The median simulated season comes in at 73.0 points, close to the 69.6 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 96.6 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons produce 127.7 points. That upper band represents a legitimate fantasy contributor if his role expands and the touchdowns keep coming. The distance between the p10 and p90 outcomes is over 100 points, so the variance here is real and cuts in both directions.

How to draft him

Ferguson's market ADP is 198.5, which works out to pick 17.07 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is a late-round pick in most standard drafts. He ranks #216 overall by draft value. At that stage of a draft, roster spots are cheap and the cost of a miss is low. Ferguson is a stash candidate for managers who want a Rams tight end with touchdown upside on their bench. His bye is Week 11, worth noting for playoff-schedule planning. Do not expect him to contribute in a starting lineup on a weekly basis at his current projection, but the late-round cost makes him a low-risk speculative add if his role grows.

His projection of 69.6 points and a draft value of -51.1 place him below replacement level at tight end, ranking TE27. He is not a reliable starter at his current projection, but his 3 receiving touchdowns in 2025 show he can produce in the end zone when given opportunities. At an ADP of 198.5 (pick 17.07 in a 12-team draft), the cost is minimal.

He caught 11 passes on 25 targets for 231 receiving yards and 3 receiving touchdowns, with 1 rush attempt. Those are his only NFL stats on record across the three-year aggregate window, meaning 2025 was his first season of meaningful production.

The 90th-percentile simulated season lands at 127.7 half-PPR points. That represents the top 10% of projected outcomes and would make him a viable streaming or spot-start option at tight end. The median outcome is 73.0 points, so reaching that ceiling requires meaningful role expansion beyond his 2025 usage.

His market ADP is 198.5, which translates to pick 17.07 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. In most 12-team leagues that is the final round or close to it, so he is available very late if he is available at all.