#135 overall · TB · 109.2 projected half-PPR pts · -19.9 Draft Value
Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has shown genuine playmaking consistency over the past three seasons. The unit has averaged 43.3 sacks, 11 interceptions, 15.3 forced fumbles, and 11 fumble recoveries per year from 2023 through 2025. Touchdowns and safeties have trickled in as well — 1.3 defensive TDs and 0.7 safeties per season on average. The sack production in particular has been a reliable floor, never dipping below 37 in any of the three years on record. For a drafter who needs a late-round DST with a known track record of generating turnovers and pressure, Tampa Bay checks those boxes.
What the model projects
The projection for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers DST is 109.2 half-PPR fantasy points in 2026. That output places them at DST15 and #135 overall, landing in Tier 9. Their draft value sits at -19.9, meaning the projection falls below replacement level at the DST position on a 12-team half-PPR baseline. Their bye week is Week 10.
| INT | Sacks | FF | FR | TD | Saf | PA | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 13 | 47 | 18 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 325 | 123.0 |
| 2024 | 7 | 46 | 16 | 11 | 1 | — | 385 | 104.0 |
| 2025 | 13 | 37 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 411 | 109.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 11 | 43.3 | 15.3 | 11 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 373.7 | 111.8 |
The range of outcomes
The three-year trend in points allowed tells a clear story: 325 in 2023, 385 in 2024, and 411 in 2025. Sacks have also declined from 47 to 46 to 37 over that same span, and interceptions dropped sharply to 7 in 2024 before rebounding to 13 in 2025. Forced fumbles have similarly trended downward — 18, 16, 12 — over the three seasons. The unit can still produce splash plays, as the 2025 interception rebound and two defensive touchdowns show, but the trajectory of the underlying numbers introduces real variance around the 109.2-point projection.
How to draft him
Tampa Bay's DST is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. That means there is no draft-position cost to track — if you want them, they are available as a free agent or a final-round flier in most formats. Given the -19.9 draft value and DST15 ranking, the practical approach is to treat them as a streaming option rather than a locked-in starter. Their Week 10 bye is worth noting when building your roster schedule. At #135 overall and Tier 9, this is a depth selection, not a foundational one.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
The projection is 109.2 points with a draft value of -19.9, placing them at DST15 and #135 overall in Tier 9. That negative draft value means they project below replacement level at the position, so committing a meaningful pick to lock them in is hard to justify on the numbers alone.
Over the three seasons from 2023 to 2025, the Buccaneers recorded 47, 46, and 37 sacks respectively, for a three-year average of 43.3. The floor has been solid, though the 2025 total of 37 represents the lowest mark in that window.
Interceptions were 13 in 2023, dropped to 7 in 2024, then rebounded to 13 in 2025 — a three-year average of 11. Forced fumbles averaged 15.3 per year (18, 16, 12) and fumble recoveries averaged 11 (12, 11, 10). The interception swing between 2024 and 2025 is the sharpest source of variance in the turnover profile.
The Buccaneers are off in Week 10, which is worth accounting for when setting your DST rotation.