#145 overall · TB · 117.9 projected half-PPR pts · -27.9 Draft Value
Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has shown genuine pass-rush production over the past three seasons. The unit averaged 43.3 sacks per year from 2023 through 2025, including 47 in 2023 and 46 in 2024. Interceptions have been a strength as well, with 13 picks in both 2023 and 2025 and an 11.0 per-season average across the three-year window. Fumble creation has been consistent too, averaging 15.3 forced fumbles and 11.0 recoveries per year over that span. For a drafter who needs a late-round DST with a real turnover floor, those numbers are the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 117.9 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. That places the Buccaneers DST at DST14 and #145 overall, sitting in Tier 9. The draft value is -27.9, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. Tampa Bay's bye week falls in Week 10.
| Sacks | INT | FF | FR | TD | Saf | PA | PA 0 | PA 1-6 | PA 7-13 | PA 14-20 | PA 21-27 | PA 28-34 | PA 35+ | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 47 | 13 | 18 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 325 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | — | 1 | 150.0 |
| 2024 | 46 | 7 | 16 | 11 | 1 | — | 385 | — | — | 2 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 108.0 |
| 2025 | 37 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 411 | — | 1 | — | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 110.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 43.3 | 11 | 15.3 | 11 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 373.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 111.8 |
The range of outcomes
The three-year trend in points allowed tells a clear story: 325 in 2023, 385 in 2024, and 411 in 2025, a three-year average of 373.7. Sacks declined from 47 to 46 to 37 over that same stretch. Interceptions bounced back to 13 in 2025 after dipping to 7 in 2024, which adds some volatility to the turnover picture. The unit produced two defensive touchdowns in 2025 and one safety, matching the 2023 output in those categories. The upside case leans on a repeat of the 2025 interception total and continued sack production near the three-year average; the downside case is a defense that has allowed more points each season and whose sack rate has trended down.
How to draft him
Tampa Bay's DST is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. That means there is no pick cost to plan around: this unit is available as a free agent in most drafts and can be picked up off the waiver wire rather than spent on during the draft itself. At DST14 and #145 overall with a negative draft value, the projection does not support using a meaningful pick on this defense. If you do roster them, the Week 10 bye is worth noting for streaming purposes.
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Questions drafters ask
The model projects 117.9 points, which ranks DST14 and #145 overall with a draft value of -27.9, placing the unit below replacement level. The projection does not support spending a pick on this defense in a standard 12-team half-PPR format.
The unit recorded 47 sacks in 2023, 46 in 2024, and 37 in 2025, for a three-year average of 43.3 per season. The trend has moved downward over that window.
Over the 2023-2025 window, Tampa Bay averaged 11.0 interceptions and 11.0 fumble recoveries per season. Interceptions were 13 in 2023, dropped to 7 in 2024, then returned to 13 in 2025, so there is meaningful year-to-year variance in that category.
The Buccaneers have a Week 10 bye. Given the unit's below-replacement-level projection and lack of a market ADP, streaming a higher-ranked DST in Week 10 is straightforward if you do roster this defense.
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Beyond the numbers
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