#146 overall · NE · 91.5 projected half-PPR pts · -29.1 Draft Value · Market ADP 155.7
Hunter Henry — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Hunter Henry has been one of the more consistent tight ends in terms of volume over the past three seasons. His target share has held in a range that most tight ends never reach: 61 targets in 2023, 97 in 2024, and 87 in 2025, for a three-year average of 81.7. Receptions have tracked similarly, averaging 56 per year. The touchdown production is the part that swings the fantasy value most sharply. He posted 6 receiving touchdowns in 2023, dipped to 2 in 2024, then rebounded to 7 in 2025. That three-year average of 5 receiving touchdowns per season is a real number, not a fluke of one outlier year. The receiving yardage has also trended upward: 419 yards in 2023, 674 in 2024, 768 in 2025. For a drafter who wants a tight end with a documented floor in targets and a ceiling built on touchdown variance, the three-year track record makes the case.
What the model projects
The projection is 91.5 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season lands at 100.2 points, which sits above the point estimate, reflecting the shape of the outcome distribution. Henry is ranked #146 overall and TE16, with a draft value of -29.1, placing him in Tier 9. That negative draft value means the projection sits below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. His bye week is Week 11.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 61 | 42 | 419 | 6 | 1 | 98.9 |
| 2024 | 97 | 66 | 674 | 2 | — | 112.4 |
| 2025 | 87 | 60 | 768 | 7 | — | 148.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 81.7 | 56 | 620.3 | 5 | 0.3 | 120.0 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, which is consistent with a player whose fantasy value is heavily tied to touchdown variance. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 38.8 points, a number that reflects how little value accrues when the touchdowns dry up. The 25th percentile is 66.7 points. The median sits at 100.2 points. The 75th percentile reaches 123.0 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons come in at 151.4 points or better. The spread from p10 to p90 is 112.6 points, which underscores how much the outcome depends on whether the touchdowns show up. A season like 2024, with only 2 receiving touchdowns on 97 targets, lands near the bottom of that band. A season like 2025, with 7 touchdowns, pushes toward the top.
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our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Henry going at pick 155.7, which works out to round 13, pick 12 in a 12-team draft. That is based on a median across two platforms. The model ranks him #146 overall and TE16. In practical terms, you are looking at a late-round pick if you want him on your roster. At that draft slot, the question is whether a touchdown-dependent tight end with a negative draft value fits your roster construction. If you are carrying a stronger tight end earlier and want a late-round lottery ticket on touchdown upside, the draft cost is low. If you are hoping Henry anchors your tight end spot, the projection and the draft value both suggest managing expectations accordingly.
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Questions drafters ask
He has seen 61 targets in 2023, 97 in 2024, and 87 in 2025, for a three-year average of 81.7 targets per season. That is a consistent volume floor at the position.
Significantly. His receiving touchdowns went 6 in 2023, 2 in 2024, and 7 in 2025. The three-year average is 5 per season, but the single-season swings are large enough to push his outcome band from 38.8 points at the 10th percentile all the way to 151.4 at the 90th percentile.
The projection is 91.5 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks #146 overall and TE16, in Tier 9, with a draft value of -29.1, which is below replacement level at tight end in a 12-team half-PPR format.
Market ADP puts him at pick 155.7, or round 13, pick 12 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms.
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Beyond the numbers
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