#118 overall · NE · 95.5 projected half-PPR pts · -16.5 Draft Value
Hunter Henry — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Hunter Henry has posted back-to-back seasons of genuine production at tight end. In 2024 he caught 66 passes for 674 yards and 2 touchdowns on 97 targets. In 2025 he followed that with 60 receptions, 768 yards, and 7 touchdowns on 87 targets. Averaged across the last three seasons, he has seen 81.7 targets per year, hauled in 56 receptions, gained 620.3 yards, and scored 5 receiving touchdowns. The touchdown upside is real — six scores in 2023, two in 2024, seven in 2025. That kind of variance at the position is worth understanding before you draft him.
What the model projects
The projection for Henry is 95.5 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -16.5, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the tight end position. He ranks #118 overall and TE13, placed in Tier 9 on the board. These numbers reflect where he stands relative to the full field of draftable players — a back-end starter or streamer-range option at the position.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 61 | 42 | 419 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 98.9 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97 | 66 | 674 | 2 | — | 0 | 0 | 112.4 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 87 | 60 | 768 | 7 | — | 0 | 0 | 148.8 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 81.7 | 56 | 620.3 | 5 | 0.3 | — | — | 120.0 |
The range of outcomes
Henry's three-year history illustrates how wide the outcome band can run at tight end. His receiving touchdowns went from 6 in 2023, to 2 in 2024, to 7 in 2025 — a swing of five scores between his best and worst seasons. His target volume has been more stable, ranging from 61 to 97 over that span, but the touchdown variance alone can move his fantasy value dramatically from one season to the next. A season at the high end of his touchdown range looks very different from one at the low end, and that uncertainty is baked into any honest assessment of his ceiling and floor.
How to draft him
Henry is #118 overall and TE13, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -16.5, which places him below replacement level at the position. No market ADP is available for Henry, so there is nothing to say about where other drafters are pricing him. Evaluate him on his rank and tier: he is a depth tight end whose touchdown variance gives him occasional upside, but whose baseline projection does not clear the replacement bar. If you roster him, plan for a week-to-week role rather than a locked-in starter.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
His projection of 95.5 points and a draft value of -16.5 put him below replacement level at tight end — he ranks TE13 and #118 overall in Tier 9. He carries real touchdown upside (6 in 2023, 7 in 2025) but also demonstrated how quickly that can evaporate (2 in 2024). He is a depth option, not a reliable weekly starter.
Over the last three seasons he has averaged 81.7 targets and 56 receptions per year. His single-season target totals were 61 (2023), 97 (2024), and 87 (2025), so volume has been reasonably present even when touchdowns dried up.
Touchdown variance. He scored 6 times in 2023, 2 in 2024, and 7 in 2025. In a season where the touchdowns don't come, his receiving yardage alone — 419 yards in 2023 on 42 catches — does not produce enough fantasy points to justify a roster spot at a position where replacement-level production is the baseline.
Tier 9 and a draft value of -16.5 mean he projects below replacement level for the position. His rank of TE13 and #118 overall reflect that he is on the fringe of startable tight ends rather than a player you build around.