Chase McLaughlin — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Chase McLaughlin has been one of the more consistent kickers in the league over the past three seasons. His three-year averages tell the story plainly: 30.3 field goals made, 39.7 extra points, and just 1.7 misses per season across 33.7 attempts. That miss rate is tight. In 2025 he attempted 38 field goals, his highest total in the three-year window, and connected on 32 of them. His long-range production has grown each year: 7 field goals of 50-plus yards in 2023, 8 in 2024, and 11 in 2025. Tampa Bay's offense generates enough scoring opportunities to keep that attempt volume credible. For a kicker, volume and accuracy are the whole job, and McLaughlin has delivered both.

What the model projects

The projection is 137.8 half-PPR fantasy points for 2025. McLaughlin ranks K5 at his position and sits at #158 overall, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -32.0, which means the projection lands below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season lands at 145.5 points, a few points above the point estimate. His bye week is Week 10.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band runs from 96.8 points at the 10th percentile to 166.8 at the 90th. A bad season, bottom 10 percent of outcomes, produces 96.8 points. A typical season lands at the median of 145.5. A strong season, top 10 percent of outcomes, reaches 166.8. The 25th-to-75th-percentile range is 122.1 to 159.2, a reasonably tight band for a kicker. The floor is real: a 96.8-point season is a meaningful downside, roughly 40 points below the median. The ceiling at 166.8 reflects the kind of high-attempt, high-accuracy season McLaughlin has shown he can produce.

How to draft him

McLaughlin's market ADP is 189.6, which works out to pick 16.10 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. He ranks #158 overall by draft value. In practice, kickers are drafted last, and McLaughlin fits that pattern. You will not need to spend a pick on him until the final rounds of your draft. His K5 position rank means there are four kickers the model values ahead of him, so if you want him specifically, Round 16 is roughly when the market says you need to act. Given his bye in Week 10, factor that into your roster management if you draft him.

He ranks K5 by draft value in a 12-team half-PPR format, so the model values four kickers ahead of him. His draft value of -32.0 is below replacement level, which is typical for kickers outside the top tier. His three-year average of 30.3 field goals made and 1.7 misses per season reflects genuine accuracy and volume, but his overall standing is Tier 9 and #158 overall.

McLaughlin made 7 field goals of 50-plus yards in 2023, 8 in 2024, and 11 in 2025. That is a clear upward trend in his most valuable kick category. In 2025 he also led his three-year window in total field goal attempts with 38.

His market ADP is 189.6, which translates to pick 16.10 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That puts him firmly in the final rounds, consistent with standard kicker-drafting practice.

The simulated season band puts his 10th-percentile outcome at 96.8 half-PPR points and his 90th-percentile outcome at 166.8. The median simulated season is 145.5 points. The gap between the floor and the ceiling is about 70 points, which reflects the inherent variance in kicker scoring from season to season.