Stefon Diggs — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

The 2023 season is the anchor. Stefon Diggs posted 160 targets, 107 receptions, 1,183 receiving yards, and 8 touchdowns that year, a workload that established him as a legitimate WR1 in half-PPR formats. The 2025 rebound is the more recent argument: 102 targets, 85 receptions, 1,013 receiving yards, and 4 touchdowns after a sharply reduced 2024 campaign. The three-year averages tell a story of a receiver who, when healthy and featured, can produce at a high volume: 108.7 targets, 79.7 receptions, and 897.3 receiving yards per season across 2023-2025. Now in Washington, the question is whether that target share follows him. The 2025 numbers suggest the answer is yes.

What the model projects

The projection is 118.3 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits at #102 overall and WR43, placing Diggs in Tier 9. His draft value is -10.4, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 114.3 points, close to the point estimate. The projection reflects a receiver whose three-year average output sits just under 900 receiving yards and 5 receiving touchdowns per season.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 44.4 points, a number consistent with the kind of limited production Diggs showed in 2024 (64 targets, 496 receiving yards, 3 touchdowns). At the optimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons reach or exceed 191.8 points, a ceiling that reflects what a full-season, featured role looks like for him. The 25th percentile is 75.9 points and the 75th is 149.5, so the interquartile range spans roughly 74 points. That is a meaningful spread for a late-round target. The 2024 season is the floor case; the 2023 season is the ceiling case. Both are real possibilities.

How to draft him

Market ADP is 105.6, which works out to pick 9.10 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. The model has him at #102 overall. At pick 9.10, a drafter is spending a mid-to-late-round selection on a receiver the projection places below replacement level, with a wide outcome band. The upside is real: a 2023-style season produces WR1 numbers. The downside is also real: a 2024-style season produces borderline-startable output. Diggs fits best as a depth piece or a high-variance flex option for drafters who can absorb the variance. His bye is Week 7, which is worth noting for roster management. If the target share from 2025 holds in Washington, the ceiling justifies the pick; if it contracts, the floor is steep.

Market ADP puts him at pick 9.10 (105.6 overall). The model projects 118.3 points and ranks him #102 overall, WR43, in Tier 9, with a draft value of -10.4, which is below replacement level. The outcome band runs from 44.4 points (p10) to 191.8 points (p90), so the range is wide. Whether the pick is worthwhile depends on your roster construction and tolerance for variance at that stage of the draft.

In 2023 he posted 160 targets, 107 receptions, 1,183 yards, and 8 touchdowns. In 2024 those numbers dropped sharply to 64 targets, 47 receptions, 496 yards, and 3 touchdowns. In 2025 he rebounded to 102 targets, 85 receptions, 1,013 yards, and 4 touchdowns. The three-year averages are 108.7 targets, 79.7 receptions, 897.3 receiving yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns per season.

The p90 outcome, meaning the top 10% of simulated seasons, is 191.8 half-PPR points. The 2023 season, with 160 targets and 1,183 receiving yards, is the historical reference point for what that ceiling looks like in practice.

The p10 outcome is 44.4 half-PPR points, the bottom 10% of simulated seasons. The 2024 season, in which he totaled 64 targets and 496 receiving yards, is the closest historical analog to that floor scenario.