#92 overall · LAC · 121.6 projected half-PPR pts · -7.4 Draft Value · Market ADP 96.2
Quentin Johnston — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Quentin Johnston has posted back-to-back seasons of growth since his 2023 debut. He went from 431 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns in 2023 to 711 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2024, then held that touchdown pace in 2025 with 735 yards and 8 scores on 84 targets. The three-year averages tell a consistent story: 80.7 targets, 48 receptions, 625.7 receiving yards, and 6 receiving touchdowns per season. The touchdown production is the headline. Two straight seasons of 8 receiving scores is a real signal, and it anchors the case for rostering him in the late rounds of a 2026 draft.
What the model projects
The projection is 121.6 half-PPR fantasy points. Johnston ranks #92 overall and WR41, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -7.4, meaning the projection lands just below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season of 119.1 points tracks closely with the point estimate, so the projection is not being pulled by extreme tails. His bye week is 7.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 67 | 38 | 431 | 2 | 3 | 9 | — | 75.0 |
| 2024 | 91 | 55 | 711 | 8 | 3 | 6 | — | 147.2 |
| 2025 | 84 | 51 | 735 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 145.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 80.7 | 48 | 625.7 | 6 | 2.7 | 7.3 | 0.3 | 123.3 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 47.4 points, and the 25th percentile sits at 80.0. The median is 119.1. On the upside, the 75th percentile reaches 154.2 points and the 90th percentile climbs to 195.4. That spread from 47.4 to 195.4 reflects genuine season-to-season variance. A floor season looks like his 2023 stat line; a ceiling season pushes well past anything he has produced to date. The fumble lost in 2025 is a minor note in an otherwise clean three-year profile.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Johnston going at pick 96.2, which translates to round 8, pick 12 in a 12-team draft. That is where you would need to spend a pick to secure him. He ranks #92 overall by draft value, and the model places him at WR41 in Tier 9. At that draft slot, he is a late-round flier whose upside rests almost entirely on sustaining the touchdown rate he has posted in each of the last two seasons. Draft him as a depth piece with a defined role, not as a starter you are counting on from week one.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
The model projects him at 121.6 points and ranks him WR41 and #92 overall in Tier 9. His draft value is -7.4, which puts him just below replacement level at the position. He is a depth option, not a core starter, but two straight seasons of 8 receiving touchdowns give him a real floor in scoring upside.
Over the last three seasons he has averaged 80.7 targets, 48 receptions, 625.7 receiving yards, and 6 receiving touchdowns per year. His 2024 and 2025 seasons were nearly identical in touchdowns (8 each), and his target volume held at 91 and 84 respectively.
The simulated season band runs from 47.4 points at the 10th percentile to 195.4 at the 90th. The median is 119.1, close to the 121.6 point projection. That spread signals meaningful variance; a bad season looks like his 2023 debut and a great one would be a career-best by a wide margin.
Market ADP puts him at pick 96.2, or round 8, pick 12 in a 12-team draft. That is the window where he is currently coming off the board across the platforms feeding that median.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
Get the book on your rivals →