#92 overall · TEN · 111.1 projected half-PPR pts · -5.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 76.7
Tony Pollard — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Tony Pollard has posted back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons with Tennessee, logging 1,079 yards on 260 attempts in 2024 and 1,082 yards on 242 attempts in 2025. Over three seasons (2023–2025), he has averaged 251.3 rush attempts, 1,055.3 rush yards, and 5.3 rush touchdowns per year — a profile of durable, high-volume work. He also contributes as a receiver, averaging 43 receptions and 251.7 receiving yards per season over that same stretch. The workload is real, the role is established, and the production has been consistent.
What the model projects
Our projection has Pollard at 111.1 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That places him at RB29 and #92 overall, landing him in Tier 9. His draft value sits at -5.8, meaning the projection comes in just below replacement level at the running back position in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. The numbers reflect a player who produces volume but whose scoring upside and receiving role have remained modest — five rush touchdowns and zero receiving touchdowns in each of the past two seasons.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 252 | 1005 | 6 | 67 | 55 | 311 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 193.1 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 260 | 1079 | 5 | 57 | 41 | 238 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 178.2 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 242 | 1082 | 5 | 41 | 33 | 206 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 169.3 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 251.3 | 1055.3 | 5.3 | 55 | 43 | 251.7 | — | 3 | — | — | 184.0 |
The range of outcomes
Pollard's floor is anchored by his consistency: three straight seasons of 240-plus rush attempts and 1,000-plus rush yards. The ceiling, however, is capped by a receiving role that has contracted — targets dropped from 67 in 2023 to 57 in 2024 to 41 in 2025, with receptions falling from 55 to 41 to 33 over the same span. Touchdown variance is the other swing factor; he has scored exactly five rush touchdowns in each of the last two seasons with none through the air. Ball security is a legitimate concern: Pollard has fumbled 6 times over the past two seasons (2024–2025), losing 5 of them, and has lost 6 fumbles total across the three-year window. A season in which the receiving work rebounds and touchdowns tick up gets him back toward fantasy relevance; a season in which fumbles mount or the target share continues to shrink keeps him at the margins.
How to draft him
Market ADP has Pollard going at pick 76.7 — round 7, pick 5 in a 12-team draft (based on a median across two platforms). Our model ranks him #92 overall and RB29. His bye is Week 9. At his current market price, you are spending a mid-to-late-round pick on a back who projects below replacement level at the position. If you want him, round 7 is where you will need to commit.
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Questions drafters ask
The model does not project him there. At 111.1 projected half-PPR points, RB29, and #92 overall in Tier 9, he projects as a depth back — below replacement level by 5.8 points in a 12-team half-PPR format.
Very consistent in volume: he has averaged 251.3 rush attempts and 1,055.3 rush yards per season over 2023–2025, including back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2024 (1,079 yards) and 2025 (1,082 yards).
Yes. Pollard has fumbled 6 times over the past two seasons (2024–2025), losing 5 of them. Across all three seasons (2023–2025), he has lost 6 fumbles total. That trend is worth monitoring in any lineup decision.
Based on a median ADP across two platforms, he is currently being taken at pick 76.7 — round 7, pick 5 in a 12-team draft. That is the window where you would need to spend a pick to secure him.