#67 overall · PIT · 125.7 projected half-PPR pts · +3.2 Draft Value · Market ADP 88.5
Michael Pittman — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Michael Pittman arrives in Pittsburgh carrying a three-year résumé that shows a reliable volume floor and a recent touchdown spike. His 2023 season — 156 targets, 109 receptions, 1,152 receiving yards — established him as a legitimate target hog. Production dipped in 2024 (111 targets, 69 receptions, 808 yards, 3 TDs) and held steady in volume in 2025 (111 targets, 80 receptions, 784 yards), but the 2025 touchdown total jumped to 7, the best of his three-year window. Averaged across those three seasons, he has pulled in 126 targets, 86 receptions, and 914.7 receiving yards per year with 4.7 receiving touchdowns. That is a consistent, high-floor receiver profile. The new team context in Pittsburgh is the variable to watch, but the underlying usage pattern gives a drafter something real to anchor to.
What the model projects
The projection is 125.7 half-PPR fantasy points, producing a Draft Value of +3.2 — meaning Pittman projects above replacement level at the wide receiver position. That surplus places him at WR35 and #67 overall, landing him in Tier 8 on the board. The projection is modest but positive: he is expected to contribute above what a freely available receiver would provide, not dramatically so, but consistently.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 156 | 109 | 1152 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 193.7 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 69 | 808 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 131.3 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 80 | 784 | 7 | — | 0 | 0 | 160.4 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 126 | 86 | 914.7 | 4.7 | 0.7 | — | — | 162.7 |
The range of outcomes
Pittman's three-year averages tell a story of a receiver whose target share has been durable but whose yardage and touchdown output have fluctuated meaningfully — 1,152 yards and 4 TDs in 2023, 808 yards and 3 TDs in 2024, 784 yards and 7 TDs in 2025. That variance is the core risk. The touchdown rate can swing his fantasy value significantly in either direction. A season where the touchdowns regress toward his three-year average of 4.7 while yardage stays near recent levels produces a quiet, borderline-startable outcome. A season where the 2025 touchdown efficiency holds or improves, combined with a target bump in a new offense, pushes him well above the projection. His bye falls in Week 9, which is a mid-season consideration for roster management.
How to draft him
Pittman is going off boards at pick 88.5 on average — that is round 8, pick 4 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. Our model has him at #67 overall and WR35. In a snake draft, round 8 is the window where you would need to spend a pick to secure him. At that stage of the draft, a receiver with a demonstrated target floor and a positive Draft Value is a reasonable allocation. He is a depth piece or a late-round starter candidate depending on how your roster has built out by that point. Know your need at the position before the pick arrives.
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Questions drafters ask
He has averaged 126 targets per season over the 2023–2025 window. His single-season highs were 156 targets in 2023, then 111 in both 2024 and 2025 — a dip in volume but still a consistent workload.
Pittman scored 4 receiving TDs in 2023, 3 in 2024, and 7 in 2025. His three-year average is 4.7. The 2025 spike is a real data point but also a source of variance — the projection of 125.7 half-PPR points reflects that his touchdown rate can move his fantasy value substantially in either direction.
Market ADP has him going at pick 88.5, which works out to round 8, pick 4 in a 12-team draft. That is the window where you would need to commit a pick to land him.
He sits at WR35 and #67 overall with a Draft Value of +3.2, placing him in Tier 8. A positive Draft Value means he projects above replacement level at wide receiver, so he carries genuine roster utility — he is not a zero-value flier.