#292 overall · CHI · 42.4 projected half-PPR pts · -78.3 Draft Value
Sam Roush — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Sam Roush is a tight end on the Chicago Bears roster with a bye in Week 10. At TE41 and #292 overall, the case for drafting him in a standard 12-team snake draft is narrow. His draftValue sits at -78.3, meaning the projection places him below replacement level at the position. That is a meaningful threshold: a drafter who rostered a replacement-level tight end instead would, on average, expect more fantasy production. The honest case for Roush is a late-roster flier in deeper leagues, or a handcuff-style hold in formats where tight end depth is thin and the waiver wire is unreliable.
What the model projects
The projection for Roush is 42.4 half-PPR fantasy points on the season. That is the headline number. He sits in Tier 9, the deepest tier in these rankings, and his draftValue of -78.3 reflects a projection that falls well short of replacement level at the tight end position. At TE41, he ranks outside the range most 12-team leagues will ever need to address at the position.
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is typical for a player at this projection level. In the bottom 10% of simulated seasons, Roush finishes at 6.2 points. The 25th percentile lands at 18.2 points, and the median simulated season comes in at 39.2 points, slightly below the 42.4 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 63.8 points, and in the top 10% of simulated seasons he finishes at 97.8 points. That upper tail is real: a small fraction of outcomes produces a genuinely usable tight end. The floor, however, is extremely low, and the median keeps him firmly in replacement-level territory.
(bottom 10%)
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our projection
How to draft him
Roush does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being selected consistently enough to register a median draft position. In practice, that makes him a post-draft waiver wire candidate in most leagues rather than a pick you need to plan around. If you are in a deeper format where rosters demand a second tight end, he is available late or off the wire. Do not spend a meaningful pick on him in a standard 12-team league. His Week 10 bye is worth noting for roster management if he does end up on your team.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 42.4 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season lands at 39.2 points, slightly below that estimate.
His draftValue is -78.3, placing him below replacement level at tight end. He ranks TE41 and #292 overall, and he has no consistent market ADP across public drafts. In a standard 12-team league he is a waiver wire option, not a player who warrants a draft pick.
In the top 10% of simulated seasons, he finishes at 97.8 half-PPR points. The 75th percentile is 63.8 points. Those outcomes exist, but the median is 39.2 points and the 10th percentile is just 6.2 points, so the floor is very low.
Roush and the Chicago Bears have a bye in Week 10.
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Beyond the numbers
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