Justice Hill — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Justice Hill's most compelling trait over the past three seasons is his receiving work. In 2024 he caught 42 passes for 383 yards and three receiving touchdowns on 51 targets, the clearest evidence that he can function as a pass-catching back when given the opportunity. His three-year averages back that up: 39 targets, 30.3 receptions, and 252.7 receiving yards per season. That kind of consistent target share from the backfield is the foundation any late-round dart throw needs. Add in a bye of Week 13, which keeps him available deep into the fantasy season, and the case for a flier is at least coherent.

What the model projects

The projection is 66.7 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. His draft value sits at -60.5, placing him #234 overall and RB53 in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a player projected below replacement level at the position. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 57.6 points, slightly below the point estimate of 66.7, which signals the distribution is skewed by upside rather than pulled up by a floor.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 7.3 points, essentially a non-factor. The 25th percentile lands at 25.4 points, still a minimal fantasy contribution. The median sits at 57.6 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 99.4 points and the 90th percentile climbs to 142.6 points. That top-decile outcome is roughly double the median, which tells you this is a high-variance profile. The floor is near zero; the ceiling is a usable fantasy asset. His 2025 stat line of 18 rush attempts, 93 rush yards, 21 receptions, and 169 receiving yards on 27 targets illustrates how quickly the floor can materialize.

How to draft him

Market ADP based on two platforms puts Hill at pick 203.5, which translates to round 17, pick 11 in a 12-team draft. Our rankings place him at #234 overall. At that draft slot, he is a late-round stash with a specific use case: a drafter who wants a pass-catching handcuff option in the final rounds. His three-year average of 39 targets per season is the number to hold onto. If that target share materializes in a larger role, the p90 outcome of 142.6 points becomes relevant. If it does not, the p10 of 7.3 points is the reminder of what this profile costs you when it goes wrong. Roster him only if you have the bench space to absorb the variance.

His market ADP is 203.5 (round 17, pick 11 in a 12-team draft), and the projection is 66.7 points with a draft value of -60.5, placing him RB53. He projects below replacement level, so the case rests entirely on upside: his p90 simulated outcome is 142.6 points, and his three-year average of 39 targets per season shows a real receiving role is possible. The floor is severe, with a p10 of just 7.3 points.

Over the past three seasons he has averaged 39 targets, 30.3 receptions, and 252.7 receiving yards per year. His best receiving season was 2024: 51 targets, 42 receptions, 383 yards, and three receiving touchdowns. His 2025 line dropped to 27 targets, 21 receptions, and 169 yards.

Very wide. The simulated season band runs from 7.3 points at the 10th percentile to 142.6 points at the 90th percentile. The median outcome is 57.6 points and the point estimate is 66.7. The gap between the p10 and p90 is over 135 points, which reflects a high-variance profile.

It has declined each of the past two seasons. In 2023 he carried 84 times for 387 yards and three rushing touchdowns. In 2024 that fell to 47 carries for 228 yards and one rushing touchdown. In 2025 it dropped further to 18 carries for 93 yards and two rushing touchdowns. His three-year average is 49.7 rush attempts per season.