#255 overall · BAL · 52.4 projected half-PPR pts · -64.5 Draft Value
Justice Hill — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Justice Hill's most compelling trait is his hands. Over the past three seasons, he has averaged 30.3 receptions and 39 targets per year, and in 2024 he turned 42 catches into 383 receiving yards with 3 receiving touchdowns — a genuine pass-game contributor out of the Baltimore backfield. His three-year average of 1.7 receiving touchdowns per season adds a scoring floor that pure handcuff backs rarely offer. He has also shown durability as a ball-carrier when given the opportunity, posting 387 rush yards on 84 attempts in 2023. The receiving role is real, and in a Baltimore offense that moves the ball, that role has produced points.
What the model projects
The projection is 52.4 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. Hill ranks #255 overall and RB56, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -64.5, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the running back position. These numbers reflect a limited role — his three-year averages of 49.7 rush attempts and 39 targets per season are the statistical foundation the projection is built on. Baltimore's bye is Week 13.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 84 | 387 | 3 | 39 | 28 | 206 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 95.3 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 228 | 1 | 51 | 42 | 383 | 3 | — | 0 | 0 | 106.1 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 93 | 2 | 27 | 21 | 169 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 54.7 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 49.7 | 236 | 2 | 39 | 30.3 | 252.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | — | — | 86.2 |
The range of outcomes
Hill's season-to-season history illustrates how wide his outcome band can run. In 2023 he logged 84 rush attempts, 387 rush yards, and 28 receptions for 206 yards. In 2024 his rushing work dropped sharply to 47 attempts and 228 yards, but his receiving production climbed to 42 catches, 383 yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns. In 2025 both rushing and receiving volume contracted further — 18 rush attempts, 93 rush yards, 21 receptions, and 169 receiving yards. The three-year averages (49.7 rush attempts, 236 rush yards, 30.3 receptions, 252.7 receiving yards, 2 rush touchdowns, 1.7 receiving touchdowns) sit well below his 2023 peak. The upside scenario requires a meaningful uptick in touches; the floor is a very limited role with minimal fantasy relevance.
How to draft him
Hill does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being consistently drafted on the platforms tracked. At RB56 and #255 overall, he is a deep-roster consideration — the kind of player you add in the final rounds if you are specifically targeting a pass-catching back with a history of receiving touchdowns. His Tier 9 placement reflects a below-replacement projection, so roster him only if your draft strategy has room for a speculative late add. His Week 13 bye is worth noting for playoff-week roster management.
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Questions drafters ask
He is a genuine receiving back. Over the past three seasons he has averaged 39 targets and 30.3 receptions per year. His best receiving season was 2024: 51 targets, 42 receptions, 383 yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns.
The projection is 52.4 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks #255 overall and RB56, placing him in Tier 9 with a draft value of -64.5 — below replacement level at the running back position.
It has varied considerably. Rush attempts went from 84 in 2023 to 47 in 2024 to 18 in 2025. Receiving targets went from 39 to 51 to 27 over the same span. The three-year averages are 49.7 rush attempts and 39 targets per season, but the year-to-year swings are significant.
Hill has no market ADP — he is not being consistently drafted across the platforms tracked. He is a deep-roster or late-round speculative add, not a player you need to target at a specific pick to secure.