#287 overall · KC · 51.2 projected half-PPR pts · -76.0 Draft Value
Emari Demercado — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Emari Demercado has logged three consecutive seasons of meaningful NFL work, and the consistency of his role is the core of whatever case exists here. Over the 2023-2025 stretch he averaged 42 rush attempts, 23.3 targets, 16.7 receptions, and 273 rushing yards per season. He catches passes out of the backfield with regularity, and in 2025 he posted his best rushing season of the three: 44 carries for 312 yards and a receiving touchdown. He is a known commodity in Kansas City's offense, and that familiarity has kept him on the field across multiple seasons.
What the model projects
The projection is 51.2 half-PPR fantasy points. That number sits at RB64 and #287 overall, placing Demercado in Tier 9. His draft value is -76.0, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. These are the numbers as they stand.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 58 | 284 | 2 | 30 | 21 | 119 | — | — | 62.8 |
| 2024 | 24 | 223 | 1 | 20 | 16 | 104 | — | — | 46.7 |
| 2025 | 44 | 312 | — | 20 | 13 | 101 | 1 | 1 | 51.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 42 | 273 | 1 | 23.3 | 16.7 | 108 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 54.2 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide and skewed. The median simulated season lands at 35.7 points, below the 51.2 point estimate. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 1.4 points, and the 25th percentile is just 13.1. The upside exists but requires things to break right: the 75th percentile is 76.5 points and the 90th percentile reaches 114.2. That top-decile outcome reflects a scenario where his role expands meaningfully, but the distribution makes clear that low-end outcomes are far more probable than high-end ones. The three-year average of one rushing touchdown and 0.3 receiving touchdowns per season underscores how dependent any strong finish would be on touchdown variance.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Demercado does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough on major platforms to produce one. In a standard 12-team snake draft, he is a late-round or undrafted consideration at best. At RB64 and #287 overall with a negative draft value, he belongs at the very back of a depth chart or on a waiver-wire watch list rather than as a planned pick. His bye is Week 5. If you carry him on a roster, plan around that early absence.
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Questions drafters ask
His projection is 51.2 points with a draft value of -76.0, placing him at RB64 and #287 overall in Tier 9. He projects below replacement level, and he has no consistent market ADP across public drafts. He is a depth stash, not a planned pick.
Over the 2023-2025 seasons he averaged 42 rush attempts, 23.3 targets, 16.7 receptions, and 273 rushing yards per year. His best rushing season was 2025: 44 carries, 312 yards, and a receiving touchdown. The role is real but limited.
The 90th-percentile simulated season is 114.2 half-PPR points. That is the top-decile outcome across simulated seasons. The 75th percentile is 76.5. Both require significant positive variance relative to his median simulated season of 35.7 points.
Not very. The 10th-percentile simulated season is 1.4 points and the 25th percentile is 13.1. His three-year average is one rushing touchdown and 0.3 receiving touchdowns per season, so the floor is heavily dependent on whether touchdowns materialize at all.
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Beyond the numbers
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