#186 overall · NYJ · 92.9 projected half-PPR pts · -36.2 Draft Value
New York Jets — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The Jets have flashed genuine upside in this unit before. In 2023 they posted 46 sacks, 17 interceptions, 14 forced fumbles, and 3 defensive touchdowns — a stat line that would rank among the better DST seasons in recent memory. The three-year averages (38 sacks, 8 interceptions, 12.3 forced fumbles, 2.7 touchdowns per season) confirm there is real talent on this roster. If the pass rush and turnover production trend back toward that 2023 ceiling, the fantasy output follows. For a drafter willing to wait deep into a draft and take a calculated shot on a bounce-back, the historical floor gives at least a plausible argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 92.9 half-PPR fantasy points. That places the Jets at DST25 and #186 overall, landing in Tier 9. The draft value is -36.2, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the DST position on a 12-team half-PPR baseline. These are the numbers as they stand — the rank and the surplus figure tell the same story.
| INT | Sacks | FF | FR | TD | Saf | PA | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | 46 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 355 | 134.0 |
| 2024 | 7 | 42 | 14 | 10 | 1 | — | 404 | 96.0 |
| 2025 | — | 26 | 9 | 4 | 4 | — | 503 | 67.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 8 | 38 | 12.3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 420.7 | 99.1 |
The range of outcomes
The three-year history maps out just how wide the variance is for this unit. Sacks have ranged from 26 (2025) to 46 (2023). Interceptions dropped from 17 in 2023 to 7 in 2024, with no interceptions recorded in the 2025 data. Points allowed climbed from 355 in 2023 to 503 in 2025. Defensive touchdowns have been as low as 1 and as high as 4 in a single season. That spread — from a unit that looked like a top-shelf DST to one that allowed 503 points against — is the honest range a drafter is buying into. The 2025 season represents the low end of what this group has shown; 2023 represents the high end.
How to draft him
The Jets are not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick-cost signal to report. At DST25 and #186 overall with a -36.2 draft value, this is a unit that projects below replacement level. The bye is Week 13, which is a late-season complication for playoff-round roster management. Draft him only if you are streaming DSTs and need a late-round stash, with full awareness that the projection and the rank reflect a unit trending in the wrong direction over the past two seasons.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 92.9 points and the draft value is -36.2, meaning the Jets project below replacement level at DST in a 12-team half-PPR format. They rank DST25 and #186 overall in Tier 9. The numbers do not make a strong case for rostering them as a primary DST.
The drop is measurable across every major category. Sacks went from 46 in 2023 to 42 in 2024 to 26 in 2025. Interceptions fell from 17 in 2023 to 7 in 2024, with none recorded in 2025. Points allowed climbed from 355 in 2023 to 404 in 2024 to 503 in 2025. Fumbles recovered dropped from 10 in both 2023 and 2024 to 4 in 2025.
The Jets are on bye in Week 13. That falls squarely in the fantasy playoff window for most leagues, which means a drafter rostering them would need a streaming backup available at that point in the season.
Their 2023 season provides the clearest reference point: 46 sacks, 17 interceptions, 14 forced fumbles, 10 fumbles recovered, 3 defensive touchdowns, and 355 points allowed. The three-year averages (38 sacks, 8 interceptions, 12.3 forced fumbles, 2.7 touchdowns) sit well above the 2025 output, so a return toward those averages would represent a meaningful improvement — though the current projection of 92.9 points and DST25 ranking reflect where the unit stands today.