Mike Washington — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Mike Washington is a Las Vegas Raiders running back sitting at RB70 and #308 overall in Tier 9. Those numbers do not make a traditional case for drafting him in most leagues. The honest case is a speculative one: the projection carries a wide outcome band, and the upside tail, while unlikely, is real. In a deep league or a late-round flier situation, Washington is a name worth knowing.

What the model projects

The projection is 45.2 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. His draft value sits at -82.6, meaning he projects below replacement level at the running back position in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. At Tier 9, he is among the lowest-ranked players in the overall rankings. The point estimate and the draft value tell the same story: Washington is not a player the model expects to contribute in a typical season.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide and heavily skewed. The median simulated season lands at 27.9 points. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons finishes at exactly 0.0 points, and the 25th percentile is just 8.9 points, meaning a large share of simulated seasons produce almost nothing. The upside exists but requires things to break right: the 75th percentile reaches 67.4 points and the 90th percentile reaches 103.3 points. That top-decile outcome is more than three times the median, which tells you how much variance is baked into this projection. Most seasons end quietly; a small fraction do not.

How to draft him

Washington does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough on major platforms to produce a reliable average. In practice, he is a free agent in most drafts. If you are in a deep league and roster spots are available in the final rounds, he is a low-cost stash. His bye is Week 13. Do not roster him expecting a baseline contribution; the numbers say the floor is the floor, and it is low. The only reason to add him is the slim but non-zero chance the top of that outcome band becomes relevant.

The projection is 45.2 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -82.6, placing him below replacement level at running back, ranked RB70 and #308 overall in Tier 9.

The band runs from 0.0 points at the 10th percentile to 103.3 at the 90th percentile, with a median of 27.9. The 25th percentile is just 8.9 points, so the most likely outcomes are very low, but the top decile does reach triple digits.

He does not have a market ADP. He is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce a reliable average, which means he is effectively undrafted in most public leagues.

At RB70 and #308 overall with a draft value of -82.6, he projects below replacement level. His median simulated season is 27.9 points. He is a speculative add in deep leagues only, not a player the projection supports rostering in standard 12-team formats.