Marvin Mims — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Marvin Mims has been on the Denver roster for three seasons and has shown a consistent rushing role alongside his receiver duties. In 2024 he posted career highs of 503 receiving yards, 39 receptions, 52 targets, and 6 receiving touchdowns. He followed that with 322 receiving yards, 37 receptions, 51 targets, and added a rush touchdown in 2025. Over the three-year window from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 45.3 targets, 32.7 receptions, 400.7 receiving yards, 11.3 rush attempts, and 50 rush yards per season. The rushing usage is real and recurring, giving him a floor that a pure slot receiver without that role would not have. His 2024 touchdown total of 6 receiving scores shows the ceiling exists when the red-zone opportunities arrive.

What the model projects

The projection for Mims is 52.1 half-PPR fantasy points this season. His draft value is -76.4, placing him #289 overall and WR98 in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a player sitting well below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection is the headline number; the median simulated season, at 34.0 points, sits below it, which signals that the point estimate is being pulled upward by higher-end scenarios.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. At the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons, Mims finishes at just 1.1 points. The 25th percentile lands at 13.9 points and the median at 34.0. The 75th percentile reaches 66.8 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons comes in at 108.6 points. That is a spread of more than 107 points between the p10 and p90, which tells you this is a high-variance profile. The 2024 season, with its 6 receiving touchdowns, lives in the upper portion of that band. The 2025 season, with 1 receiving touchdown and 1 rush touchdown across 51 targets, sits closer to the middle. Touchdown variance is the primary driver of where any given season lands.

How to draft him

Mims does not have a market ADP available, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. At WR98 and #289 overall in Tier 9, he is a player you would add only after your roster is otherwise set. His three-year average of 45.3 targets per season is a real workload, but it has not translated into consistent fantasy production at a level that clears replacement value. The upside at p90 is 108.6 points, which is worth keeping in mind for a late-round stash, but the median outcome at 34.0 points and the -76.4 draft value make him a depth option rather than a contributor you can count on week to week. Denver's bye is Week 10, a factor worth noting when building out your roster depth.

The model projects him at 52.1 points with a draft value of -76.4, placing him WR98 and #289 overall in Tier 9. That puts him well below replacement level, so he is a depth or stash option rather than a reliable starter.

In 2024 he scored 6 receiving touchdowns on 52 targets. In 2023 and 2025 he scored 1 receiving touchdown each season. The three-year average is 2.7 receiving touchdowns per year. The p90 simulated season reaches 108.6 points, so the ceiling is real but heavily dependent on touchdown variance.

Over three seasons he has averaged 11.3 rush attempts and 50 rush yards per year, with 1 rush touchdown across the full three-year window. The role is consistent but modest in volume, contributing to his floor without dramatically changing his overall projection of 52.1 points.

The simulated season band runs from 1.1 points at the 10th percentile to 108.6 points at the 90th percentile, with a median of 34.0 points. That is a spread of over 107 points, marking this as a high-variance profile where the outcome depends heavily on whether the touchdowns show up.