#259 overall · CIN · 103.1 projected half-PPR pts · -68.2 Draft Value · Market ADP 180.7
Evan McPherson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Evan McPherson has been one of the more consistent kickers in the AFC over the past three seasons. His 2025 line tells the story plainly: 25 field goals made on 28 attempts, just 3 misses, 41 extra points, and 15 combined makes from 40 yards and beyond. That 2025 accuracy improvement over 2024 is real. The three-year averages back it up: 22.3 field goals per season, 39.3 extra points, and only 4.7 misses per year on 27 attempts. The long-range work is a consistent part of his profile, with 15 field goals from 40-plus yards across 2023 and 2025 alone. Cincinnati's offense keeps him busy, as the extra-point attempt totals confirm: 40, 38, and 44 over the last three seasons.
What the model projects
The projection is 103.1 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That sits below the median simulated season of 115.8, which is normal given how the distribution is shaped for kickers. McPherson ranks K23 at the position and #259 overall, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -68.2, meaning the projection falls below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format. Cincinnati's bye is Week 6.
| FG | FGM | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 26 | 5 | 40 | 135.0 |
| 2024 | 16 | 6 | 37 | 88.0 |
| 2025 | 25 | 3 | 41 | 133.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 22.3 | 4.7 | 39.3 | 34.6 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, as it is for every kicker. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons lands at 13.0 points, a near-total-loss floor. The 25th percentile is 66.0 points, still a significant step down from the median. The median simulated season is 115.8 points. The 75th percentile reaches 134.3, and the top 10% of simulated seasons comes in at 159.4. The gap between the p10 and p90 is 146.4 points, which reflects how volatile a kicker's season-to-season output can be regardless of underlying skill. The upside at the 90th percentile is real; the downside at the 10th percentile is equally real.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
McPherson's market ADP is 180.7, which works out to pick 16.01 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is a late-round pick, consistent with where kickers typically come off the list. His position rank is K23 and his overall rank is #259 overall. Drafters who want him should plan to spend a pick in the 16th round. Given the volatility in the outcome band, the timing of that pick relative to other kickers on your list is the main decision to make.
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Questions drafters ask
He made 25 of 28 field goal attempts in 2025, missing just 3, with 10 makes from 0-39 yards, 10 from 40-49, and 5 from 50-plus. He also converted 41 of 44 extra point attempts.
The projection is 103.1 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season is 115.8 points, and the outcome band runs from 13.0 at the 10th percentile to 159.4 at the 90th percentile.
His market ADP is 180.7, which translates to pick 16.01 in a 12-team draft. Plan to spend a pick in the 16th round if you want him on your roster.
Over the 2023-2025 seasons, McPherson averaged 22.3 field goals made, 39.3 extra points, and 4.7 misses per season on 27 field goal attempts per year.
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Beyond the numbers
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