#200 overall · LV · 88.4 projected half-PPR pts · -41.5 Draft Value
Matt Gay — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Matt Gay has been a consistent volume kicker over the past three seasons. In 2023 he attempted 41 field goals and converted 33, adding 35 extra points on 36 attempts. In 2024 he posted 31 made field goals on 37 attempts with a perfect 33-for-33 on extra points. Across the three-year window from 2023 to 2025, he averaged 27 made field goals and 31.3 made extra points per season on 33.7 field goal attempts and 31.7 extra point attempts. That is a durable workload profile for a kicker on a Las Vegas roster. His bye falls in Week 13, late enough that it creates minimal disruption during the early stretch of the fantasy season.
What the model projects
The projection for Gay in 2026 is 88.4 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -41.5, meaning the projection places him below replacement level at the kicker position. He ranks K18 at his position and #200 overall, landing in Tier 9 on the board.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | FG | FGM | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | — | 35 | 134.0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | — | 33 | 126.0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | — | 26 | 77.0 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 27 | 6.3 | 31.3 | 106.0 |
The range of outcomes
The 2025 season showed meaningful downside in Gay's volume: 23 field goal attempts and 17 makes, compared to the 37–41 attempt range he posted in 2023 and 2024. That three-year average of 33.7 field goal attempts per season illustrates how wide the swing can be from year to year. A season closer to his 2023 or 2024 workload would push his actual output well above the projection; a repeat of 2025's reduced volume would keep him near or below it. The variance in attempt volume is the central factor shaping his range of outcomes.
How to draft him
Gay is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. That means there is no established draft-slot cost to plan around — he is effectively available as a late or undrafted addition in most leagues. At K18 and #200 overall with a negative draft value, he is a depth option rather than a target. If you are filling a kicker spot late and the Las Vegas offense generates the kind of scoring volume that drove his 2023 and 2024 attempt totals, he can be a serviceable streamer. His Week 13 bye is worth noting when setting your roster calendar.
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Questions drafters ask
He averaged 33.7 field goal attempts and 27 makes per season from 2023 to 2025. His peak was 41 attempts and 33 makes in 2023; his lightest season was 23 attempts and 17 makes in 2025.
The projection is 88.4 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -41.5, placing him below replacement level at the kicker position, ranked K18 and #200 overall in Tier 9.
Gay does not have a market ADP — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to establish one. He is effectively available as a late or undrafted addition.
Gay's bye is Week 13, which falls late in the fantasy regular season.