#251 overall · LV · 106.2 projected half-PPR pts · -66.9 Draft Value
Matt Gay — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Matt Gay has been a consistent volume kicker across three seasons. In 2023 he connected on 33 of 41 field goal attempts, including 8 from 50-plus yards, and converted 35 of 36 extra point attempts. In 2024 he made 31 of 37 field goals and was perfect on extra points, going 33 for 33. The three-year averages tell a similar story: 27 made field goals per full season, 31.3 extra points, and 33.7 field goal attempts. That is a kicker who sees real volume and has the range to cash in from distance.
What the model projects
The projection for Gay is 106.2 half-PPR fantasy points this season. His draftValue sits at -66.9, placing him K22 and #251 overall in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect where kickers land in a value-over-replacement framework: even a productive kicker operates well below replacement level at the position in this format, and Gay is no exception. The projection is the headline number; the median simulated season, at 115.9 points, runs a bit higher.
| FG | FGM | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 33 | 7 | 35 | 150.0 |
| 2024 | 31 | 6 | 33 | 133.0 |
| 2025 | 17 | 6 | 26 | 85.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 27 | 6.3 | 31.3 | 25.0 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, as it is for any kicker. In a bottom-10% simulated season Gay finishes at 21.6 points. The 25th percentile is 75.0 points, and the median sits at 115.9. A strong season lands at 133.2 points at the 75th percentile, and a top-10% outcome reaches 153.8 points. The gap between the floor and the ceiling is substantial, which is a feature of the position rather than anything specific to Gay. His bye falls in Week 13, a week that matters in most standard playoff formats.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Gay is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick-number anchor to work from. At K22 and #251 overall, he sits in Tier 9. Kickers are universally a late-round add in snake drafts, and Gay's rank confirms he belongs in that conversation only after every other position need is addressed. If you want him, the late rounds are where to look, and the lack of a market ADP means he is likely available deep into most drafts.
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Questions drafters ask
He averaged 33.7 field goal attempts and 27 made field goals per season across 2023-2025. In his best volume year, 2023, he attempted 41 and made 33, including 8 from 50-plus yards.
The projection is 106.2 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season is 115.9 points, and the full band runs from 21.6 at the 10th percentile to 153.8 at the 90th percentile.
He is K22 and #251 overall in Tier 9, with a draftValue of -66.9. That places him below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format, which is typical for kickers ranked outside the top tier. He is a late-draft-only consideration.
He does not have a market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to establish one. He is effectively available in the final rounds of most drafts and should be treated as a last-pick-or-waiver-wire option.
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Beyond the numbers
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