#48 overall · SF · 140.6 projected half-PPR pts · +18.1 Draft Value · Market ADP 48.6
Mike Evans — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Mike Evans arrives in San Francisco with a résumé that speaks plainly. In 2023 he posted 1,255 receiving yards on 136 targets with 13 touchdowns. In 2024 he followed with 1,004 yards on 110 targets and 11 scores. Over the three-year window from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 102.7 targets, 61 receptions, 875.7 receiving yards, and 9 receiving touchdowns per season. The touchdown production is the anchor — double-digit scores in back-to-back full seasons is a real pattern, not noise. He lands in SF with a positive draft value of +18.1, meaning the projection puts him above replacement level at the wide receiver position. That surplus is the core of the case.
What the model projects
The projection is 140.6 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. That output ranks him #48 overall and WR25 at his position. He sits in Tier 7 on the board. The projection reflects a player whose target volume and touchdown rate have been durable across multiple seasons, now in a new offensive environment. The point estimate of 140.6 is the headline number to anchor your planning.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 136 | 79 | 1255 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 243.0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 110 | 74 | 1004 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 203.4 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 62 | 30 | 368 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 69.8 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 102.7 | 61 | 875.7 | 9 | — | — | 172.1 |
The range of outcomes
Evans carries real variance. His 2025 season produced only 368 receiving yards, 30 receptions on 62 targets, and 3 touchdowns — a sharp step down from his prior two years. The three-year averages smooth that out, but the 2025 line is part of the record. A drafter buying Evans is accepting a wide band of possible outcomes: a return toward his 2023–2024 form would push him well above the 140.6 projection, while a repeat of 2025-level production would fall well short. The new team context adds another layer of uncertainty — target share and red-zone usage in San Francisco are unknowns that will shape where in that range he lands.
How to draft him
Market ADP sits at 48.6, which works out to pick 5.01 in a 12-team snake draft — the first pick of the fifth round. That is where you will need to spend a pick to secure him. Our rank is #48 overall, essentially in line with where the market is pricing him. Plan your board around the fifth round if Evans is on your target list, and know that waiting much longer risks losing him. His bye is Week 8 — factor that into your roster construction when building depth.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection of 140.6 half-PPR points and a +18.1 draft value say he projects above replacement level at WR. His 2025 line — 368 yards, 30 receptions, 3 touchdowns on 62 targets — is a real data point, and the three-year averages (875.7 yards, 9 TDs, 102.7 targets per season) reflect it. Whether the fifth-round cost is right for you depends on how you weigh the upside of a return to 2023–2024 form against the risk of another 2025-style season.
In 2023 he scored 13 receiving touchdowns; in 2024, 11. In 2025 he scored 3 on a reduced target load of 62. The three-year average is 9 receiving touchdowns per season. The floor is not guaranteed — 2025 shows what a low-end outcome looks like — but the 2023–2024 pattern establishes what a healthy, full-season Evans has delivered.
Over the 2023–2025 window, Evans averaged 102.7 targets per season. His full-season marks were 136 in 2023 and 110 in 2024; the 2025 figure of 62 came in a shortened year. The three-year average is the most complete summary of his target volume across that span.
Market ADP is 48.6, which translates to pick 5.01 in a 12-team draft — the opening pick of the fifth round. That is the window where he is currently being taken in public drafts. If he is on your board, plan to use a fifth-round selection to secure him.