#61 overall · JAX · 132.3 projected half-PPR pts · +9.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 70.0
Brian Thomas — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Brian Thomas put together a legitimate breakout in 2024: 133 targets, 87 receptions, 1,282 receiving yards, and 10 receiving touchdowns. That is a full-season workload at the top of Jacksonville's target tree, and it established him as a genuine WR1 option on his own roster. The 2025 season was a step back — 91 targets, 48 receptions, 707 receiving yards, and 2 receiving touchdowns — but the underlying target volume still showed he was the focal point of the passing game. Averaged across the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he has seen 112 targets, hauled in 67.5 receptions, and produced 994.5 receiving yards per year. The floor is real, and so is the ceiling he flashed in 2024.
What the model projects
The projection for Thomas is 132.3 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits at WR32 by position rank and #61 overall, placing him in Tier 7 on the board. His draft value is +9.8, meaning he projects above replacement level at the wide receiver position. The numbers reflect a player who has shown both a high-volume season and a down year in back-to-back campaigns, and the projection lands between those two data points.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 48 | 0 | 133 | 87 | 1282 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 236.5 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 91 | 48 | 707 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 114.8 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 4.5 | 34.5 | 0.5 | 112 | 67.5 | 994.5 | 6 | — | — | 175.6 |
The range of outcomes
Thomas's two-year history illustrates exactly why his outcome band is wide. In 2024 he was a high-volume, high-touchdown producer; in 2025 his targets dropped by 42 and his touchdowns fell to 2. The three-year averages — 112 targets, 67.5 receptions, 994.5 yards, 6 receiving touchdowns — describe a middle path, but any given season can deviate sharply in either direction. A return toward 2024 target volume and touchdown rate pushes him well above the 132.3 projection; a repeat of 2025's reduced role and low touchdown luck pulls him back toward replacement level. Jacksonville's offensive health and target distribution will be the primary levers.
How to draft him
Thomas is #61 overall and WR32 by position rank. The market is currently taking him at pick 70.0 — round 6, pick 10 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That means you will need to commit a sixth-round pick to land him. At that draft slot, he is a back-end starter or high-upside flex option depending on how the rest of your board falls. His bye is Week 7, which is worth noting for roster planning. If you are building toward his 2024 ceiling, the sixth round is the window to act.
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Questions drafters ask
His history cuts both ways. In 2024 he posted 133 targets, 87 receptions, 1,282 yards, and 10 touchdowns — a clear WR2 season. In 2025 those numbers fell to 91 targets, 48 receptions, 707 yards, and 2 touchdowns. The projection of 132.3 half-PPR points and a WR32 rank reflects that variance. He has the target share to be a reliable starter but carries meaningful touchdown and volume risk.
The market is taking him at an average of pick 70.0 — round 6, pick 10 in a 12-team draft. If you want him, that is the window you are working with.
In 2025 his targets dropped from 133 to 91 and his receiving touchdowns fell from 10 to 2. The three-year average of 112 targets and 6 receiving touchdowns per season sits between those extremes. The projection of 132.3 points accounts for both the upside he showed in 2024 and the down year that followed.
Brian Thomas has a Week 7 bye, which is worth factoring into your roster construction when drafting in the sixth round.