#65 overall · JAX · 133.1 projected half-PPR pts · +4.4 Draft Value · Market ADP 70.3
Brian Thomas — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Brian Thomas put up a legitimate WR1 season in 2024: 133 targets, 87 receptions, 1,282 receiving yards, and 10 receiving touchdowns. That is a full-season stat line that establishes him as a genuine volume receiver in Jacksonville's offense. His three-year averages back the picture up: 112 targets, 67.5 receptions, and 994.5 receiving yards per season, with 6 receiving touchdowns. The target share is real, the production is real, and the 2024 season is the clearest evidence of what his ceiling looks like when everything is clicking. He carries a positive draft value of +4.4 points above replacement, which means the projection puts him ahead of the WR replacement baseline in a 12-team half-PPR format. His bye is Week 7.
What the model projects
The projection for Thomas is 133.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits him at #65 overall and WR29 in Tier 8. The point estimate is close to his 2024 production level in terms of yardage and catch volume, though the touchdown pace from that season was a high-water mark. His 2025 line of 91 targets, 48 receptions, 707 receiving yards, and 2 receiving touchdowns represents the lower end of what his recent history shows. The three-year averages land between those two seasons, and the projection of 133.1 points reflects that full picture.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 133 | 87 | 1282 | 10 | 6 | 48 | — | 236.5 |
| 2025 | 91 | 48 | 707 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 114.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 112 | 67.5 | 994.5 | 6 | 4.5 | 34.5 | 0.5 | 175.7 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band on Thomas is wide. At the 10th percentile, simulated seasons finish at 57.6 points, a number that reflects how badly things can go when volume or efficiency collapses. The 25th percentile is 94.2 points. The median simulated season lands at 135.7 points, close to the point estimate of 133.1. The 75th percentile is 170.3 points, and the 90th percentile reaches 208.1 points. That top-decile outcome is a genuine WR1 season. The spread from p10 to p90 runs 150.5 points, which signals meaningful variance. Drafters should understand that the floor is real and the ceiling is real in roughly equal measure.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Thomas is going at pick 70.3 on average across two platforms, which works out to the 6th round, 10th pick in a 12-team draft. That is the window where you need to be ready to spend a pick on him if you want him. At #65 overall and WR29, he sits in Tier 8. Plan accordingly: if he is on your list, the sixth round is when the market is taking him.
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Questions drafters ask
He caught 87 passes on 133 targets for 1,282 receiving yards and 10 receiving touchdowns, adding 6 rush attempts for 48 yards. It was a high-volume, high-efficiency season by any measure.
In 2025 Thomas totaled 91 targets, 48 receptions, 707 receiving yards, and 2 receiving touchdowns. His three-year averages sit at 112 targets, 67.5 receptions, 994.5 receiving yards, and 6 receiving touchdowns per season. The projection of 133.1 points reflects the full multi-year picture, not just either single season in isolation.
The 10th-percentile simulated outcome is 57.6 half-PPR points. The 25th percentile is 94.2 points. Those are the numbers that define the floor range, and they are low enough to matter when deciding how much draft capital to commit.
The market is taking Thomas at an average of pick 70.3, which is round 6, pick 10 in a 12-team draft. If he is a target, the sixth round is the window where you need to act.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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