#94 overall · CAR · 110.8 projected half-PPR pts · -6.1 Draft Value · Market ADP 85.1
Chuba Hubbard — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Chuba Hubbard's 2024 season is the anchor. He carried the ball 250 times for 1,195 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns, adding 43 receptions for 171 yards and one receiving score. That is a workhorse profile — volume, touchdowns, and a real role in the passing game. His three-year averages back the durability argument: 207.3 rush attempts, 869.3 rushing yards, 37.3 receptions, and 45.7 targets per season. Carolina has leaned on him consistently, and that usage history is the foundation of any case for him in 2026.
What the model projects
The projection is 110.8 half-PPR fantasy points. That lands him at RB30 and #94 overall, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value sits at -6.1, meaning the projection falls just below replacement level at the running back position in a standard 12-team half-PPR baseline. The numbers reflect a player whose floor is real but whose ceiling, at this projection, does not clear the replacement bar.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 238 | 902 | 5 | 44 | 39 | 233 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 163.0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 1195 | 10 | 54 | 43 | 171 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 218.1 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 134 | 511 | 1 | 39 | 30 | 223 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 110.4 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 207.3 | 869.3 | 5.3 | 45.7 | 37.3 | 209 | 1.3 | 2 | — | — | 166.1 |
The range of outcomes
Hubbard's season history shows meaningful variance. In 2024 he posted 1,195 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns on 250 attempts. In 2025 those numbers fell sharply — 511 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 134 attempts — while his receiving touchdown total rose to 3 on 30 receptions. The three-year rushing touchdown average of 5.3 and rushing yard average of 869.3 sit well below the 2024 peak. Fumbles are a real concern: he lost 3 in 2024, though that dropped to 1 in 2025. The upside case runs through a return to 2024-level volume and scoring. The downside case is a repeat of 2025's reduced workload.
How to draft him
Market ADP has Hubbard going at pick 85.1 — round 8, pick 1 in a 12-team draft (sourced from 2 platforms). Our model ranks him #94 overall and RB30. A drafter targeting him should plan to spend a pick in the eighth round. At that stage of the draft, the question is whether 110.8 projected points and a Tier 9 designation fit the role you need filled. His bye is Week 5, worth noting for roster construction.
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Questions drafters ask
He ran 250 times for 1,195 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns, caught 43 passes for 171 yards, and added one receiving touchdown — a clear workhorse season.
Draft value measures projected points above replacement level. At 110.8 projected points, the model places him at RB30 and #94 overall — just below the replacement threshold in a 12-team half-PPR baseline, producing a draft value of -6.1.
In 2025 Hubbard posted only 511 rushing yards and 1 rushing touchdown on 134 attempts, though he did score 3 receiving touchdowns. His three-year rushing yard average is 869.3 and his three-year rushing touchdown average is 5.3, both well below his 2024 peak.
Market ADP puts him at pick 85.1, which is round 8, pick 1 in a 12-team draft. That is the point in the draft where you would need to spend a pick to secure him.