#65 overall · CAR · 134.2 projected half-PPR pts · +6.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 74.8
Chuba Hubbard — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Chuba Hubbard has logged back-to-back seasons of 238 and 250 rush attempts, proving he can absorb a full workload when given the opportunity. His 2024 season was the clearest statement of that ceiling: 1,195 rushing yards, 10 rushing touchdowns, 43 receptions, and 54 targets. The receiving work is real and consistent across three years, averaging 37.3 receptions and 45.7 targets per season from 2023 through 2025. That dual-threat floor keeps him relevant even in weeks where the ground game stalls. His three-year averages of 869.3 rushing yards and 5.3 rushing touchdowns per season reflect a back who has produced at a starter's volume more than once. The projection sits at 134.2 half-PPR points, and his draftValue of +6.0 places him above replacement level at the position. For a drafter building depth at running back, that positive surplus matters.
What the model projects
The projection is 134.2 half-PPR fantasy points. His draftValue is +6.0, which puts him #65 overall and at RB28. He sits in Tier 8. The median simulated season lands at 140.0 points, close to the point estimate. His bye week is Week 5.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 238 | 902 | 5 | 44 | 39 | 233 | — | 1 | 163.0 |
| 2024 | 250 | 1195 | 10 | 54 | 43 | 171 | 1 | 4 | 218.1 |
| 2025 | 134 | 511 | 1 | 39 | 30 | 223 | 3 | 1 | 110.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 207.3 | 869.3 | 5.3 | 45.7 | 37.3 | 209 | 1.3 | 2 | 166.1 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, and that width is the central fact about Hubbard's profile. At the pessimistic end, the p10 is 48.6 points, a season that would render him nearly irrelevant on a fantasy roster. The p25 sits at 89.2 points, still a difficult return on a mid-round pick. The upside side of the band is more encouraging: the p75 reaches 186.1 points and the p90 climbs to 225.9 points, a figure that would make him a weekly starter. The gap between the p10 and p90 spans 177.3 points, which signals that his season-to-season variance is substantial. His 2025 line of 511 rushing yards and 134 rush attempts on one end, versus 1,195 yards and 250 attempts in 2024 on the other, illustrates exactly that kind of swing in the real data. Drafters should price in both possibilities.
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our projection
How to draft him
The market is placing Hubbard at an average draft position of 74.8, which works out to pick 7.03 in a 12-team snake draft. That is the pick you will need to spend to secure him. The model has him at #65 overall and RB28. His bye falls in Week 5, so plan your roster accordingly in the early portion of the season. Given the width of his outcome band, he fits best as a depth piece rather than a cornerstone, and the drafter who takes him in the seventh round should enter the season prepared to manage both the high-end and low-end scenarios that his history and simulated outcomes both support.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 134.2 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks #65 overall and RB28, sitting in Tier 8 with a draftValue of +6.0.
Across the 2023-2025 seasons he averaged 37.3 receptions, 45.7 targets, and 209 receiving yards per year. In 2024 he posted 43 receptions on 54 targets, and in 2025 he caught 30 of 39 targets for 223 yards and 3 receiving touchdowns.
The p10 is 48.6 points and the p90 is 225.9 points, a spread of 177.3 points. The median simulated season is 140.0 points. That range reflects meaningful season-to-season variance, consistent with his actual history of 511 rushing yards in 2025 versus 1,195 in 2024.
The market ADP is 74.8, which translates to pick 7.03 in a 12-team snake draft. That is the round-seven investment the market is currently requiring for him.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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