#50 overall · IND · 137.9 projected half-PPR pts · +15.4 Draft Value · Market ADP 61.9
Alec Pierce — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Alec Pierce has posted back-to-back seasons of growth that are hard to ignore. After 514 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns in 2023, he stepped up to 824 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2024, then cleared 1,000 receiving yards in 2025 — 1,003 on 47 receptions from 84 targets, with 6 touchdowns. That three-year arc shows a receiver who has expanded his role every season. His 3-year averages — 72.7 targets, 38.7 receptions, 780.3 yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns per season — understate where he finished in 2025. The trajectory is the argument.
What the model projects
The model projects Pierce at 137.9 half-PPR fantasy points this season, producing a draftValue of +15.4 above replacement level at the wide receiver position. That places him #50 overall and WR26, sitting in Tier 7 on the board. The projection reflects a receiver who has earned a defined role and shown the ability to contribute in both volume and scoring.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 65 | 32 | 514 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 79.4 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 69 | 37 | 824 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 142.9 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 84 | 47 | 1003 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 159.8 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 72.7 | 38.7 | 780.3 | 5 | — | — | 127.4 |
The range of outcomes
Pierce's season-to-season history illustrates the variance in play. His receiving yards jumped from 514 to 824 to 1,003 across three consecutive seasons, while his touchdown totals swung from 2 to 7 to 6. That kind of year-to-year movement is real. A floor scenario looks closer to his 2023 line — limited targets, modest yardage, minimal scoring. A ceiling scenario builds on his 2025 breakout: sustained target volume near or above 84, yardage north of 1,000, and touchdown production in the 6–7 range. The gap between those outcomes is wide enough to matter when setting expectations.
How to draft him
Pierce's market ADP is 61.9 — round 6, pick 2 in a 12-team draft (median across 2 platforms). Our model has him at #50 overall and WR26. Plan to spend a sixth-round pick if you want him on your roster. His bye is Week 13, which is late enough to be a non-factor in most regular-season schedules. At WR26, he profiles as a depth starter or a high-upside flex option depending on how your earlier rounds unfold.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
His 2025 season — 1,003 yards, 6 touchdowns, 84 targets — shows he can produce at a WR2 level. But his 3-year averages (72.7 targets, 780.3 yards, 5 TDs) reflect real variance, including a 514-yard, 2-TD season in 2023. He carries meaningful upside alongside genuine floor risk.
His market ADP is 61.9, which works out to round 6, pick 2 in a 12-team draft. That is when other drafters are taking him, so plan accordingly if he is on your target list.
It has grown each year: 65 targets in 2023, 69 in 2024, and 84 in 2025. The 2025 figure is his career high and the clearest sign that his role in the offense has expanded.
His career high is 7 receiving touchdowns, set in 2024. He followed that with 6 in 2025. His 3-year average is 5 receiving touchdowns per season, so consistent scoring is part of his profile, though the exact number has varied year to year.