Alec Pierce — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Alec Pierce has posted three consecutive seasons of growth across every major receiving category. In 2023 he caught 32 passes for 514 yards and 2 touchdowns on 65 targets. In 2024 those numbers climbed to 37 catches, 824 yards, and 7 touchdowns on 69 targets. In 2025 he reached 47 receptions, 1,003 yards, and 6 touchdowns on 84 targets, crossing the 1,000-yard threshold for the first time. The three-year averages sit at 38.7 receptions, 780.3 yards, and 5 touchdowns on 72.7 targets per season. That is a consistent upward trajectory, not a one-year spike. His draftValue is positive at +5.2, meaning the projection puts him above replacement level at the wide receiver position. He lands at WR31 and #67 overall in Tier 8.

What the model projects

The projection for Pierce is 130.4 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season lands at 131.9 points, which tracks closely with that point estimate. His bye week is 13, which falls late enough in the season to avoid most fantasy playoff windows.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide, and that width is the central fact about Pierce as a fantasy asset. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 55.3 points. The 25th percentile is 91.0 points. The median is 131.9. The 75th percentile reaches 166.5 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above 205.0 points. That is a spread of roughly 150 points between the p10 and p90 outcomes. A drafter targeting Pierce is accepting real downside in exchange for a ceiling that clears 200 points. His three-year history of steady improvement provides some floor support, but the band makes clear that a low-end season remains a live possibility.

How to draft him

Pierce is going at pick 79.4 on average across the platforms that report him, which works out to the 7th round, 7th pick in a 12-team draft. His rank is #67 overall and WR31. At that draft slot, a drafter is spending a mid-to-late-round pick on a receiver who has cleared 1,000 yards once and projects just above replacement level. The wide outcome band means roster construction context matters: Pierce fits best as a depth piece or flex option for a drafter who has secured a stable foundation in earlier rounds. His Tier 8 placement reflects that role accurately.

Every major category has risen in each of the three seasons on record. Targets went from 65 to 69 to 84. Receiving yards went from 514 to 824 to 1,003. Receptions went from 32 to 37 to 47. The three-year averages are 72.7 targets, 780.3 yards, and 38.7 catches per season, so 2025 is the peak of a trend, not an isolated spike.

The p90 outcome from the simulated season band is 205.0 half-PPR points. That is the threshold only 10% of simulated seasons clear, representing a high-end outcome rather than a likely one.

Market ADP puts him at pick 79.4, which is round 7, pick 7 in a 12-team draft. That is the average cost across the platforms that report him.

The p10 outcome from the simulated band is 55.3 half-PPR points, meaning 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below that total. The p25 is 91.0 points. The downside is real and should factor into how much roster equity a drafter commits to him.