#292 overall · TEN · 45.2 projected half-PPR pts · -71.7 Draft Value
Michael Carter — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Michael Carter is a Tier 9 back on Tennessee's roster, ranked RB63 and #292 overall. His most productive recent season came in 2025, when he posted 92 rush attempts for 333 rush yards, caught 33 of 45 targets for 267 receiving yards, and added a rushing touchdown — the most complete statistical season of the three-year window on record. His three-year averages (2023–2025) show 52.3 rush attempts, 217 rush yards, 22.7 receptions, 141.7 receiving yards, and a combined 1.0 touchdowns per season. The receiving work is real: 29 targets per season on average, with a catch rate that held above 70% in both 2023 and 2025. If Tennessee's backfield opens up, Carter has demonstrated he can handle both dimensions of the role.
What the model projects
The projection is 45.2 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. The draft value sits at -71.7, meaning the projection lands 71.7 points below replacement level at the running back position. Carter is a Tier 9 player on a board that spans all positions. These numbers reflect where he stands heading into the season — a deep-depth back whose projected output does not clear the replacement-level bar in a standard 12-team half-PPR format.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 187 | 0 | 31 | 24 | 101 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 46.8 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 131 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30.3 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 92 | 333 | 1 | 45 | 33 | 267 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 82.5 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 52.3 | 217 | 0.7 | 29 | 22.7 | 141.7 | 0.3 | — | — | 53.2 |
The range of outcomes
No simulation band data is available for Carter in these facts, so the full percentile spread cannot be reported. What the history does show is meaningful variance: his 2024 season produced just 131 rush yards and 57 receiving yards across 35 carries and 11 targets, while his 2025 season more than doubled those totals on a larger workload. The gap between those two seasons illustrates how sharply his fantasy output can swing based on opportunity. A floor built on receiving work is present; a ceiling requires a significant uptick in carries.
How to draft him
Carter carries a #292 overall rank and an RB63 designation. No market ADP is available for him. In a 12-team snake draft, he is a late-round or undrafted consideration — a handcuff or streaming option rather than a core roster piece. His bye is Week 9. Draft him only if you are specifically targeting depth at running back and have already secured your starter-level backs.
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Questions drafters ask
He carried the ball 92 times for 333 rush yards and one rushing touchdown, while catching 33 of 45 targets for 267 receiving yards — his most active season across all three years on record.
The projection of 45.2 half-PPR points and a draft value of -71.7 place him at RB63 and #292 overall in Tier 9. Those numbers put him below replacement level in a standard 12-team half-PPR format, making him a depth or streaming option rather than a starter.
Over the 2023–2025 window, he averaged 29 targets and 22.7 receptions per season. His catch totals were 24 in 2023, 11 in 2024, and 33 in 2025 — the receiving role has been present but variable in volume.
Tennessee's bye falls in Week 9, so plan accordingly if you roster him.