#318 overall · TEN · 42.8 projected half-PPR pts · -84.6 Draft Value
Michael Carter — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Michael Carter's 2025 season was his most productive across the three-year window on record. He logged 92 rush attempts for 333 yards and added 33 receptions on 45 targets for 267 receiving yards, with a rushing touchdown. That receiving volume, 45 targets, is a meaningful uptick from the 31 he saw in 2023 and the 11 in 2024. The three-year averages tell a quieter story: 52.3 rush attempts, 217 rush yards, 29 targets, and 22.7 receptions per season. Carter is a Tennessee backfield piece with a demonstrated pass-catching role, and 2025 showed that role can expand. For a drafter building late-round depth, that receiving floor is the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 42.8 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. Carter ranks RB75 at #318 overall and sits in Tier 9. His draft value is -84.6, which places him below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He carries a Week 9 bye.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 30 | 187 | — | 31 | 24 | 101 | 1 | 46.8 |
| 2024 | 35 | 131 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 57 | — | 30.3 |
| 2025 | 92 | 333 | 1 | 45 | 33 | 267 | — | 82.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 52.3 | 217 | 0.7 | 29 | 22.7 | 141.7 | 0.3 | 53.2 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide and skewed. The bottom 10 percent of outcomes lands at 0.0 points. The 25th percentile is 8.2 points. The median simulated season produces 25.8 points. At the 75th percentile the number climbs to 63.4, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons reaches 98.8 points. The floor is essentially zero, and the ceiling, while real, requires a best-case scenario to materialize. Most simulated seasons cluster well below the projection's headline number, which itself sits at 42.8.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Carter does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being consistently drafted on the platforms tracked. In practice, he is a waiver-wire or late-roster-construction name rather than a pick you need to plan around. If you want him on your roster, the window to add him likely stays open well past any conventional draft. At RB75 and #318 overall in Tier 9, he is a depth option, not a building block, and should be treated accordingly when constructing a roster.
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Questions drafters ask
He carried the ball 92 times for 333 yards and caught 33 passes on 45 targets for 267 receiving yards, adding one rushing touchdown. It was his highest workload across all three seasons on record.
The model projects 42.8 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks RB75 and #318 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -84.6, placing him below replacement level at the position.
The band runs from 0.0 points at the 10th percentile to 98.8 at the 90th. The median simulated season is 25.8 points. The floor is a genuine zero, and the majority of simulated seasons land well below the 42.8 point projection.
Carter has no market ADP across the platforms tracked for 2026, meaning he is not being consistently drafted. There is no pick you need to spend to secure him; he is available as a post-draft addition in most formats.
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Beyond the numbers
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