#385 overall · PIT · 175.3 projected half-PPR pts · -92.1 Draft Value
Aaron Rodgers — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Aaron Rodgers is now in Pittsburgh, and the 2024 season showed he can still produce at a meaningful volume: 584 pass attempts, 3,897 passing yards, 28 touchdown passes, and 368 completions. The 2025 campaign followed with 498 attempts, 3,322 yards, 24 touchdown passes, and a cleaner interception-to-attempt ratio — 7 picks on 498 throws compared to 11 on 584 the year prior. He also added a rushing touchdown in 2025, his first in the three-year window. The three-year averages tell a more measured story — 2,406.3 passing yards, 17.3 passing touchdowns, and 6 interceptions per season — but that average is dragged down heavily by a 2023 in which he threw just one pass. Strip that season out and the 2024–2025 body of work is the relevant baseline. For a drafter willing to roster a QB late and accept the ceiling that comes with it, Rodgers on the Steelers is a coherent dart throw.
What the model projects
The projection is 175.3 half-PPR fantasy points. That places Rodgers at QB24 and #385 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -92.1, meaning the projection sits 92.1 points below the replacement-level baseline for quarterbacks in a 12-team half-PPR format. These are the numbers as they stand — QB24 in Tier 9 with a negative surplus. His bye week is Week 9.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2024 | 584 | 368 | 3897 | 28 | 11 | 22 | 107 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 263.6 |
| 2025 | 498 | 327 | 3322 | 24 | 7 | 21 | 61 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -9 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 231.6 |
| 3-yr avg | 361 | 231.7 | 2406.3 | 17.3 | 6 | 14.3 | 56 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -3 | — | 3 | — | — | 166.7 |
The range of outcomes
The 2024 and 2025 seasons bracket the realistic outcome space well. On the high end, 2024 looks like the ceiling: 584 attempts, 3,897 yards, 28 touchdowns, though it came with 11 interceptions and 5 fumbles (2 lost). On the lower end, 2025 was a tighter, less explosive line — 498 attempts, 3,322 yards, 24 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 1 fumble lost. The three-year aggregate, which includes the near-zero 2023 season, pulls the per-season averages down to 361 attempts and 2,406.3 yards. The floor is real and it is low. The ceiling is a functional QB2 week-winner, not a league-winner.
How to draft him
Rodgers is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. That means there is no pick cost to plan around — he is effectively a free agent on draft day in most leagues. In a 12-team snake draft, he is a name to keep on your watchlist for the final rounds if you are streaming the position or want a handcuff-level QB2. His Tier 9 placement and QB24 rank make him a depth option, not a starter to build around. Draft him only if your QB situation is already secured and you want a late-round insurance policy.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2024 he threw for 3,897 yards and 28 touchdowns on 584 attempts with 11 interceptions. In 2025 he threw for 3,322 yards and 24 touchdowns on 498 attempts with 7 interceptions, adding a rushing touchdown and losing just 1 fumble.
He ranks QB24 by draft value within the position and #385 overall across all positions. He sits in Tier 9 with a draft value of -92.1, which is 92.1 points below the replacement-level baseline for QBs in a 12-team half-PPR format.
The projection is 175.3 half-PPR fantasy points.
He does not have a market ADP — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. In practice, he is available as a free pickup in most drafts and carries no meaningful pick cost.