Aaron Rodgers — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Aaron Rodgers is now in Pittsburgh, and the 2024 season showed he can still produce at a functional starter level. He threw for 3,897 yards and 28 touchdowns on 584 attempts, completing 368 of those passes, with 11 interceptions and 107 rushing yards on 22 carries. In 2025 he posted 3,322 yards and 24 passing touchdowns on 498 attempts, adding a rushing score and cutting his interception total to 7. The three-year averages tell a more complicated story: 361 pass attempts, 231.7 completions, 2,406.3 passing yards, and 17.3 passing touchdowns per season, pulled down heavily by a 2023 that produced just one pass attempt. If you are building a two-QB roster or need a late-round handcuff at the position, Rodgers on a new team at least carries a recent full-season track record.

What the model projects

The projection is 175.3 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. That sits at QB28 and #312 overall, placing Rodgers in Tier 9. His draft value is -83.9, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. Pittsburgh's bye week falls in Week 9.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide. The 10th-percentile outcome is 47.8 points, a season that would offer almost no fantasy value. The 25th percentile comes in at 98.4 points, still well below replacement level. The median simulated season lands at 146.8 points, short of the 175.3 point estimate, which signals the distribution is skewed upward by high-end possibilities. The 75th percentile reaches 223.8 points and the 90th percentile climbs to 290.2 points. That top-decile outcome is the only scenario where Rodgers delivers meaningful fantasy production. The gap between the p10 and p90 is 242.4 points, one of the wider bands you will encounter at the position, reflecting genuine uncertainty about how this situation plays out.

How to draft him

Rodgers does not have a market ADP across public 2026 draft platforms, which means he is not being consistently drafted at this time. There is no pick cost to plan around. His #312 overall rank and QB28 designation in Tier 9 put him firmly in the category of a late-flier or roster-filler rather than a planned starter. If you are in a two-QB or superflex league, the calculus shifts, but in a standard single-QB format his -83.9 draft value makes him a replacement-level gamble at best. Draft him only if you have already secured a starter and want a speculative upside arm on the bench, keeping the 290.2-point p90 ceiling in mind as the reason to bother.

The projection of 175.3 points and a draft value of -83.9 place him at QB28 and #312 overall in Tier 9, below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season is 146.8 points. Those numbers make him a difficult case as a planned starter.

In 2024 he completed 368 of 584 passes for 3,897 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, adding 107 rushing yards. In 2025 he completed 327 of 498 passes for 3,322 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, with 61 rushing yards and a rushing score. The three-year averages are pulled down by a 2023 season that included just one pass attempt.

The 90th-percentile simulated season produces 290.2 half-PPR points. That is the top-decile ceiling across his outcome band, and it represents the scenario where he delivers genuine fantasy value.

Rodgers does not have a market ADP right now; he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to generate one. There is no specific pick window to target or protect against at this time.