#315 overall · DEN · 43.1 projected half-PPR pts · -84.1 Draft Value · Market ADP 153.4
Jonah Coleman — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jonah Coleman is a Denver running back with a bye in Week 10. At RB73 and #315 overall, he sits deep in the Tier 9 pool, which means the case for drafting him in a standard 12-team half-PPR league is almost entirely about late-round roster construction and handcuff logic. The projection is modest at 43.1 fantasy points, and the draft value of -84.1 reflects a player below replacement level at the position. None of that is a reason to ignore him entirely. Deep-league managers and those building out their benches in the final rounds will find him in a range where roster spots cost almost nothing.
What the model projects
The projection is 43.1 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. The draft value is -84.1, placing Coleman at RB73 and #315 overall in Tier 9. These numbers describe a player whose projected output falls below the replacement-level baseline for running backs in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate is the headline: 43.1 points across a full season.
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide and skewed. The median simulated season (p50) lands at 26.0 points, which is notably below the 43.1 point estimate, signaling that the distribution pulls toward the upside. In the bottom 10% of simulated seasons (p10), Coleman scores 0.0 points. The 25th percentile (p25) is 8.2 points. The 75th percentile (p75) reaches 63.8 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons (p90) produces 99.4 points. The gap between the median and the p90 is the story here: most simulated seasons are quiet, but a meaningful share of outcomes push toward near-100-point territory. That variance is the only real argument for a roster spot.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Coleman at an average pick of 153.4, which works out to Round 13, Pick 9 in a 12-team snake draft. That is late-round territory where roster decisions carry low opportunity cost. Coleman is ranked #315 overall by draft value, and the market ADP of 153.4 reflects where public drafts are actually spending picks on him. If you want him, Round 13 is when you would need to act. His Week 10 bye is worth noting for lineup management purposes if he does earn a spot on your roster.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 43.1 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. His draft value is -84.1, which places him below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
The simulated season band runs from 0.0 points at the p10 to 99.4 points at the p90. The median simulated season is 26.0 points, the p25 is 8.2, and the p75 is 63.8. Most simulated seasons are low-scoring, but the top 10% of outcomes approach 100 points.
The market ADP is 153.4, which translates to Round 13, Pick 9 in a 12-team snake draft. That is the average pick at which he is being selected across public drafts.
Coleman is in Tier 9, ranked RB73 at his position and #315 overall by draft value.
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Beyond the numbers
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