#342 overall · NYJ · 183.6 projected half-PPR pts · -83.9 Draft Value
Geno Smith — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Geno Smith is now with the Jets, and the case for drafting him is a narrow one. Over the past three seasons he has averaged 3,656.3 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, and 178.7 rushing yards per year — a workload that keeps him relevant in deep leagues and two-QB formats. His 2024 season was his most productive of the three, with 4,320 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, and 272 rushing yards on 53 carries. He adds a modest but real rushing floor, averaging 43.7 rush attempts per season across the three-year window. In the right format, that dual-threat floor is the only reason to have his name on your draft board.
What the model projects
The projection is 183.6 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That produces a draft value of -83.9, meaning he projects 83.9 points below replacement level at the quarterback position. He ranks QB23 at the position and #342 overall, placing him in Tier 9 on the board. His bye week is 13. These numbers reflect a stat line that has trended in the wrong direction: passing yards dropped from 4,320 in 2024 to 3,025 in 2025, interceptions climbed to 17, and rushing touchdowns fell to zero. The projection sits well below the replacement bar.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 499 | 323 | 3624 | 20 | 9 | 37 | 155 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 231.8 |
| 2024 | 578 | 407 | 4320 | 21 | 15 | 53 | 272 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 281.0 |
| 2025 | 448 | 302 | 3025 | 19 | 17 | 41 | 109 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 188.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 508.3 | 344 | 3656.3 | 20 | 13.7 | 43.7 | 178.7 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.7 | — | 5.3 | — | — | 236.5 |
The range of outcomes
Smith's three-year history shows real season-to-season variance. Passing yards have ranged from 3,025 to 4,320; interceptions from 9 to 17; rush yards from 109 to 272. The 2025 line — 448 attempts, 302 completions, 3,025 yards, 19 touchdowns, 17 interceptions, zero rushing scores — represents the low end of what his recent history looks like. The 2024 line represents the high end. A rebound toward his 2024 form is possible; a continuation of the 2025 trend is equally plausible. The three-year averages of 13.7 interceptions and 5.3 fumbles per season are a persistent drag on his fantasy floor regardless of which direction the passing volume goes.
How to draft him
Smith is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, which tells you everything about his current standing in public drafts. At QB23 and #342 overall in Tier 9, he is a late-round or undrafted option in standard 12-team single-QB leagues. His negative draft value of -83.9 means he is a below-replacement-level asset at his position. He belongs on rosters only as a deep handcuff in two-QB or superflex formats, and only after every meaningful starter at the position has been claimed. Draft him with that context in mind — he is a contingency, not a plan.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
Almost certainly not. He projects at 183.6 half-PPR points, ranks QB23 at the position and #342 overall, and carries a draft value of -83.9 — meaning he projects 83.9 points below replacement level. He has no market ADP, which reflects how rarely he is being selected in public drafts.
Over the past three seasons (2023–2025) he averaged 508.3 pass attempts, 3,656.3 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, 13.7 interceptions, and 178.7 rushing yards per year. His best season in that window was 2024 (4,320 yards, 21 TDs, 272 rush yards); his worst was 2025 (3,025 yards, 19 TDs, 17 INTs, zero rushing touchdowns).
It adds a floor, but a modest one. He has averaged 43.7 rush attempts and 178.7 rush yards per season over the past three years. He scored 2 rushing touchdowns in 2024 but zero in 2025, and his three-year average is 1 rushing touchdown per season. It is a real but small contribution.
He has no market ADP — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. In practice, he is available as a late add or off the waiver wire in most formats.