#270 overall · GB · 54.0 projected half-PPR pts · -73.2 Draft Value · Market ADP 172.1
MarShawn Lloyd — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
MarShawn Lloyd is a Green Bay Packers running back with a thin NFL résumé to date. His three-year aggregate through 2025 matches his 2024 line exactly: 6 rush attempts, 15 rush yards, 1 target, 1 reception, and 3 receiving yards. That is the full body of work on record. The case for drafting him rests entirely on what the projection sees ahead, not what the history shows, and any drafter picking him up is making a forward-looking bet on volume that has not yet materialized at the NFL level.
What the model projects
The projection is 54.0 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. That places Lloyd at RB60 and #270 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -73.2, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. These numbers reflect where he stands in the rankings right now, and they are the honest starting point for any conversation about his fantasy utility.
| Car | Rush yds | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 6 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2.3 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is the defining characteristic of Lloyd's profile. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons lands at 2.4 points; the 25th percentile reaches only 15.3. The median simulated season is 39.6 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile is 80.6 points and the top 10% of simulated seasons reaches 119.3 points. That spread from 2.4 to 119.3 is substantial. The floor is near zero and the ceiling is a genuinely useful fantasy season, which means the outcome is highly binary. Most simulated seasons cluster well below the projection's headline number, and the high-end results are real but infrequent.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Lloyd's market ADP is 172.1, which works out to pick 15.04 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is a late-round pick, consistent with his Tier 9 standing and his below-replacement projection. At that draft slot the cost is low, and he fits the profile of a late-flier stash: a player you add in the final rounds when roster spots are cheap and the upside band justifies the gamble. His bye is Week 11. Plan your roster depth accordingly.
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Questions drafters ask
His full three-year aggregate through 2025 is 6 rush attempts for 15 yards, 1 target, 1 reception, and 3 receiving yards. That is the complete on-field record.
The projection is 54.0 half-PPR points. He ranks RB60 and #270 overall with a draft value of -73.2, which is below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format. He is not projected as a usable starter.
The band runs from 2.4 points at the 10th percentile to 119.3 at the 90th, with a median simulated season of 39.6. The upside is real but the floor is near zero, so the outcomes are highly skewed.
His market ADP is 172.1, which is pick 15.04 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. He is a late-round target.
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Beyond the numbers
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