#249 overall · CAR · 63.2 projected half-PPR pts · -64.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 90.4
Jonathon Brooks — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jonathon Brooks is a Carolina Panthers running back whose entire three-year statistical record fits in a single sentence: 9 rush attempts for 22 yards, 3 receptions for 23 yards. That is the full body of work. The case for drafting him is not built on what he has done; it is built entirely on what he might do if he earns a meaningful role in Carolina's backfield. For a drafter willing to accept near-zero floor in exchange for late-round upside, that is the bet on the table.
What the model projects
The projection is 63.2 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. That sits at a draftValue of -64.0, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the running back position. The model places him at RB55 and #249 overall, in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a player whose projected contribution, as things stand, does not clear the bar set by a freely available replacement-level back in a 12-team half-PPR league.
| Car | Rush yds | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 9 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 6.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 9 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 6.0 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, which is the defining feature of this profile. The p10 floor is 5.9 points, a season that amounts to almost nothing. The median simulated season lands at 52.6 points. The p90 ceiling reaches 136.2 points, a figure that would represent genuine fantasy relevance. The p25-to-p75 range runs from 22.6 to 94.2 points, a spread of more than 70 points across the middle of the distribution. That kind of variance is the signature of a player whose role is deeply uncertain. Most simulated seasons cluster well below usefulness; a meaningful share produce a back worth starting. There is very little middle ground.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP sits at 90.4, which works out to pick 8.06 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is a significant gap from his #249 overall ranking by draft value. You would be spending a mid-round pick on a player the projection places in Tier 9. The math only works if you are treating this as a pure upside dart in a round where you have already secured your core. His bye is Week 5, so factor that into roster construction if you do take the shot. Go in with eyes open: the floor is real, the ceiling is real, and the projection says the most likely outcome is somewhere between the two, leaning toward the low end.
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Questions drafters ask
His full statistical record across three seasons (2023-2025) is 9 rush attempts for 22 yards and 3 receptions for 23 yards on 3 targets. That is the complete picture.
The projection is 63.2 half-PPR fantasy points. His draftValue is -64.0, meaning the projection falls below replacement level at running back in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks RB55 and #249 overall in Tier 9.
The band runs from 5.9 points at the p10 to 136.2 points at the p90, with a median of 52.6. The p90 ceiling is real, but the distribution is heavily skewed toward low-end outcomes. Most simulated seasons land well below fantasy relevance.
Market ADP is 90.4, which translates to pick 8.06 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the pick cost the market is currently pricing in.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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