Greg Zuerlein — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Zuerlein's 2023 season is the argument. He connected on 35 of 38 field goal attempts, missing just two, and hit 13 kicks from 40-49 yards plus five from 50 or beyond. That is a high-volume, high-accuracy season from a kicker with legitimate range. The three-year aggregate shows 22 made field goals per season on 26.5 attempts, with only 3.5 misses per year. The accuracy profile is real, and the long-range capability is documented.

What the model projects

The projection is 63.0 half-PPR fantasy points. Zuerlein sits at K40 and #452 overall, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -108.4, which means the projection lands below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The headline number is 63.0 points; the rank and tier reflect where that output sits relative to the full field.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide and skewed in a way that demands attention. The p10 and p25 both sit at 0.0 points, meaning at least a quarter of simulated seasons produce nothing. The median simulated season (p50) is just 8.3 points. The p75 reaches 22.2 points, and the p90 jumps to 102.6. That shape tells you this is a high-variance profile: most simulated seasons cluster near zero, but the top decile produces a genuinely useful fantasy kicker. The 2024 season reflects that variance directly: nine made field goals on 15 attempts, five misses, and only one kick from 40-49 yards, compared to the 18 long-range makes he posted in 2023.

How to draft him

Zuerlein is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. In practice, that means he is available as a late-round or undrafted addition in most 2026 snake drafts. At K40 and #452 overall with a negative draft value, he is a depth option at best. The 2023 accuracy and range are worth keeping in mind if you need a streaming kicker, but the outcome band makes clear that counting on him as a starter carries real risk. Draft him only if you need kicker depth and he is still on the wire.

He sits at K40 and #452 overall with a draft value of -108.4, which puts him below replacement level at the position. The projection is 63.0 points, but the median simulated season is only 8.3 points and both the p10 and p25 land at 0.0. He is not a recommended starter, but his 2023 accuracy and range make him a viable late-wire add if you need kicker depth.

The three-year aggregate shows 22 made field goals per season on 26.5 attempts with 3.5 misses per year. However, the seasons diverge sharply: 35 makes on 38 attempts in 2023 versus 9 makes on 15 attempts in 2024. The range is real, and the outcome band reflects it.

Yes, based on 2023 results. He hit 13 field goals from 40-49 yards and five from 50 or beyond that season. The 2024 season showed only one make from 40-49 yards, so the long-range production has not been consistent across both recent seasons.

He does not have a market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to register one. He is effectively an undrafted or wire-pickup option in most formats.