Marquise Brown — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Marquise Brown has two legitimate full-season performances on his recent ledger. In 2023 he caught 51 of 101 targets for 574 yards and 4 touchdowns. In 2025 he caught 49 of 74 targets for 587 yards and 5 touchdowns. Those two seasons show a receiver who, when available, can produce at a WR3/flex level. The 2025 line is particularly notable: 587 yards and 5 scores on only 74 targets is efficient work. His three-year averages across 2023-2025 sit at 63.3 targets, 36.3 receptions, 417.3 receiving yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns per season, a figure pulled down by the abbreviated 2024 campaign. For a drafter willing to accept variance, the upside seasons are real and documented.

What the model projects

The projection is 75.9 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That produces a draft value of -49.3, placing Brown at WR80 and #209 overall in Tier 9. The projection sits above the median simulated season of 56.4 points, reflecting the skew in his outcome distribution. At this rank and tier, Brown is a player the model places below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a standard 12-team half-PPR format.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide, which is the defining characteristic of Brown's profile. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons land at 9.9 points, and the 25th percentile is 27.8 points. Those are effectively non-contributory fantasy seasons. The median outcome is 56.4 points. Move to the optimistic side and the 75th percentile reaches 92.2 points, with the top 10 percent of simulated seasons finishing at 142.9 points. That p90 figure represents a legitimate fantasy contributor. The distance from p10 to p90 is 133.0 points, one of the wider spreads a drafter will encounter at this position. The 2024 season, which produced only 9 receptions, 15 targets, and 91 receiving yards, is the floor case made real. The 2025 season, 587 yards and 5 touchdowns, is the ceiling case made real. Both outcomes are plausible.

How to draft him

Brown does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being consistently drafted on the platforms that feed this data. In practice, he is a late-round or undrafted target in most leagues. His Tier 9 placement and WR80 rank reflect a player whose expected value sits below replacement level, so the calculus is straightforward: he is a depth or stash option, not a starter. Draft him only after your starting lineup and primary depth are secured. The wide outcome band means the upside is real, but the downside, as the 2024 record shows, is a near-zero fantasy contribution. His bye is Week 10, worth noting when constructing late-roster depth.

Two of his three recent seasons are full-season contributions: 574 yards and 4 touchdowns on 101 targets in 2023, and 587 yards and 5 touchdowns on 74 targets in 2025. The 2024 season produced only 91 receiving yards on 15 targets. The three-year averages across 2023-2025 are 63.3 targets, 36.3 receptions, 417.3 yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns per season.

The 90th-percentile simulated outcome is 142.9 half-PPR points. The 75th percentile is 92.2 points. His 2025 actual season, 587 yards and 5 touchdowns, is the documented real-world version of that range.

He is WR80 and #209 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -49.3. That places him below replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format. He has no consistent market ADP across public drafts, meaning most drafters are not spending a pick on him at all.

The band runs from 9.9 points at the 10th percentile to 142.9 points at the 90th percentile, a spread of 133.0 points. The 25th percentile is 27.8 points. The 2024 season, 9 receptions and 91 yards, is a real-world example of the low end of that range.