Evan Engram — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

The 2023 season is the anchor. Evan Engram caught 114 passes on 143 targets for 963 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns that year, a volume line that established him as a legitimate featured tight end. The three-year average across 2023-2025 still shows 94.3 targets, 70.3 receptions, and 596.3 receiving yards per season, which reflects a player who has seen consistent usage even when the counting stats dipped. Now in Denver, the question is whether a new environment restores anything closer to that 2023 ceiling. For a drafter willing to take a late-round flier on upside, the 2023 tape and target history are the argument.

What the model projects

The projection is 71.2 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits below replacement level at the tight end position, reflected in a draft value of -48.4. Engram is ranked TE25 and #202 overall, placing him in Tier 9. The projection is a point estimate; the median simulated season (p50) comes in at 75.0 points, a modest distance above the headline number.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 25.2 points, a near-zero fantasy contribution. The 25th percentile lands at 46.5 points, still well below replacement. The median sits at 75.0 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 98.6 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above 129.6 points. That upper tail is meaningful. A drafter who lands the 90th-percentile version of Engram gets a productive tight end; a drafter who lands the 10th-percentile version gets almost nothing. The 2024 season (47 receptions, 365 yards, 1 touchdown on 64 targets) and the 2025 season (50 receptions, 461 yards, 1 touchdown on 76 targets) both sit closer to the lower half of that band, which is the honest context for the upside case.

How to draft him

Engram does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough to generate one. He is a Tier 9 player ranked #202 overall and TE25. At that standing, he is a depth add or a late-roster stash, not a player to target with a meaningful pick. His bye is Week 10. If you carry him, plan around that gap. The 2023 ceiling is real, but the three-year trend and the sub-replacement projection put the burden of proof squarely on the optimistic scenario.

The model projects him at 71.2 points with a draft value of -48.4, meaning he projects below replacement level at tight end. He is ranked TE25 and #202 overall in Tier 9. He carries late-roster upside given his 2023 history, but the projection and three-year trend put him firmly in the depth/stash category rather than a reliable starter.

In 2023 he posted 114 receptions, 143 targets, 963 receiving yards, and 4 touchdowns. In 2024 those numbers fell to 47 receptions, 64 targets, 365 yards, and 1 touchdown. In 2025 he had 50 receptions, 76 targets, 461 yards, and 1 touchdown. The three-year average is 70.3 receptions, 94.3 targets, 596.3 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns per season.

The 90th-percentile simulated season lands at 129.6 half-PPR points. The 75th percentile is 98.6 points. Those outcomes represent a productive fantasy tight end. The 2023 season shows the ceiling is not theoretical, but the two seasons since have tracked closer to the lower half of the band.

He has no market ADP across public 2026 drafts, so there is no consistent draft slot to plan around. At TE25 and #202 overall, he is a late-round or undrafted target. Do not spend a meaningful pick expecting the 2023 version; treat him as a speculative add if he is available deep in your draft.