#47 overall · NYG · 141.4 projected half-PPR pts · +18.9 Draft Value · Market ADP 33.5
Malik Nabers — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Malik Nabers arrived in New York and immediately became one of the most targeted wide receivers in the league. In 2024, his first NFL season, he drew 170 targets, hauled in 109 receptions for 1,204 yards, and scored 7 receiving touchdowns. That workload — 170 targets as a rookie — is a foundation most receivers never build. He sits at WR24 with a positive draft value of +18.9, meaning he projects above replacement level at his position. The Giants' offense runs through him, and that target share is the core of his fantasy case.
What the model projects
The projection for Nabers is 141.4 half-PPR fantasy points, placing him #47 overall and WR24. His draft value of +18.9 puts him comfortably above replacement level at the position. He lands in Tier 7 on the board. The 2024 season — 170 targets, 109 receptions, 1,204 yards, 7 touchdowns — is the primary data anchor in his record. The 2025 season produced 35 targets, 18 receptions, 271 yards, and 2 touchdowns across a reduced sample. Both seasons are part of the record the projection draws from.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 170 | 109 | 1204 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 217.1 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 18 | 271 | 2 | — | 0 | 0 | 48.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 0.5 | — | — | — | — | 2.5 | 1 | — | 102.5 | 63.5 | 737.5 | 4.5 | 0.5 | — | — | 132.6 |
The range of outcomes
Nabers carries real variance. His 2024 season showed what a full workload looks like: 170 targets and 1,204 receiving yards. His 2025 season was a sharply reduced sample — 35 targets, 18 receptions, 271 yards. The three-year aggregate (2023–2025) averages out to 102.5 targets, 63.5 receptions, 737.5 receiving yards, and 4.5 receiving touchdowns per season, which illustrates how much the two completed seasons differ from each other. If Nabers sees a target volume closer to his 2024 peak, the upside is substantial. If his role or availability is curtailed again, the floor is considerably lower. NYG's bye falls in Week 8, a week to plan around.
How to draft him
Market ADP has Nabers going at pick 33.5 — round 3, pick 10 in a 12-team draft (median across 2 platforms). Our model ranks him #47 overall and WR24. If you want him, the market is pricing him in the third round. Know that going in, and decide whether his target-share history and positive draft value fit the spot you'd be spending on him.
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Questions drafters ask
He saw 170 targets in his rookie season, catching 109 of them for 1,204 yards and 7 receiving touchdowns — a full-season workload that established him as a primary option in the Giants' offense.
141.4 half-PPR fantasy points, ranking him #47 overall and WR24, with a draft value of +18.9 above replacement level at his position.
Market ADP puts him at pick 33.5, which works out to round 3, pick 10 in a 12-team draft. That is the current market price based on a median across 2 platforms.
The 2025 season produced only 35 targets, 18 receptions, 271 yards, and 2 touchdowns — a significantly reduced sample compared to his 2024 numbers. The three-year average sits at 102.5 targets and 737.5 receiving yards per season, reflecting how wide the gap between his two completed seasons is and why his outcome range is broad.