#20 overall · CIN · 170.3 projected half-PPR pts · +47.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 30.2
Tee Higgins — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Tee Higgins has quietly built one of the more consistent receiving résumés at his position over the past three seasons. From 2023 through 2025, he averaged 94.3 targets, 58 receptions, 804.3 receiving yards, and 8.7 receiving touchdowns per season. The touchdown rate is the headline: he crossed the end zone 5 times in 2023, 10 in 2024, and 11 in 2025 — a clear upward trend in red-zone involvement. His 2024 and 2025 seasons each cleared 900 and 840 receiving yards respectively, and his target share has remained substantial across all three years. The floor is real, the ceiling has been demonstrated, and the touchdown production over the last two seasons makes him a legitimate weekly starter.
What the model projects
The model projects Higgins at 170.3 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026, producing a Draft Value of +47.8 points above replacement level at the wide receiver position. That surplus ranks him #20 overall and WR10 on this board. He sits in Tier 5, a cluster of players whose projected value places them in a similar band of worth across all positions. The projection reflects his three-year track record of consistent target volume and a touchdown rate that has grown meaningfully in each of the last two seasons.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 76 | 42 | 656 | 5 | — | 0 | 0 | 116.6 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 109 | 73 | 911 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 185.6 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98 | 59 | 846 | 11 | — | 0 | 0 | 180.1 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 94.3 | 58 | 804.3 | 8.7 | 0.3 | — | — | 161.6 |
The range of outcomes
Higgins carries real variance in both directions. His 2023 season — 76 targets, 42 receptions, 656 yards, and 5 touchdowns — represents the kind of floor a bad-luck or limited-role year can produce. His 2024 and 2025 seasons show what the ceiling looks like when target volume climbs toward 100 and touchdowns stack: 911 yards and 10 scores, then 846 yards and 11 scores. The three-year fumble average of 0.3 per season is a negligible negative. The primary swing factor is touchdown variance — receivers who score 10 or 11 times in a season can just as easily regress toward 5 or 6, and that gap alone can shift his fantasy value by a full round's worth of production.
How to draft him
Higgins is ranked #20 overall and WR10 on this board. His market ADP, drawn from 2 platforms, is 30.2 — which translates to pick 3.06 in a 12-team snake draft. That means you will need to commit a third-round pick to secure him. Plan accordingly: if Higgins is a target, have your first two rounds mapped out before you get to that slot, because he is unlikely to survive to Round 4. His bye is Week 6 — early enough that it should not significantly disrupt your season, but worth noting when building your roster depth.
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Questions drafters ask
He scored 5 receiving touchdowns in 2023, 10 in 2024, and 11 in 2025 — a consistent upward trend that averages out to 8.7 per season over that three-year span.
He projects for 170.3 half-PPR fantasy points, ranks #20 overall, and comes in at WR10 with a Draft Value of +47.8 points above replacement level. He sits in Tier 5 on the full board.
His market ADP is 30.2 (pick 3.06 in a 12-team draft), based on data from 2 platforms. You will need to spend a third-round pick to land him.
His 2023 season — 76 targets, 42 receptions, 656 yards, and 5 touchdowns — illustrates the floor. Touchdown regression from his recent 10–11 score pace back toward that range is the single biggest risk to his fantasy value.