#45 overall · CIN · 154.2 projected half-PPR pts · +25.3 Draft Value · Market ADP 37.5
Tee Higgins — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Tee Higgins has posted back-to-back seasons of genuine production. In 2024 he caught 73 passes on 109 targets for 911 yards and 10 touchdowns. In 2025 he followed with 59 receptions on 98 targets for 846 yards and 11 touchdowns. The three-year averages tell a consistent story: 94.3 targets, 58 receptions, 804.3 receiving yards, and 8.7 receiving touchdowns per season. That touchdown rate, in particular, has climbed each of the last two years. The volume is real, the red-zone production is real, and the three-year track record gives a drafter something concrete to anchor a projection to.
What the model projects
The projection is 154.2 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits above replacement level at the wide receiver position, producing a Draft Value of +25.3. The model places Higgins at WR19 and #45 overall, landing him in Tier 7 of the rankings.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 76 | 42 | 656 | 5 | — | 116.6 |
| 2024 | 109 | 73 | 911 | 10 | 1 | 185.6 |
| 2025 | 98 | 59 | 846 | 11 | — | 180.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 94.3 | 58 | 804.3 | 8.7 | 0.3 | 161.6 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The median simulated season lands at 164.8 points, a touch above the 154.2 point estimate. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons comes in at 76.8 points, a number that reflects how sharply things can fall in a bad year. The 25th percentile is 119.6 points, still below replacement-level territory for a mid-round investment. On the upside, the 75th percentile reaches 198.6 points and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons hits 230.9 points. That upper band is meaningful: his 2024 and 2025 touchdown totals of 10 and 11 show the ceiling is not theoretical. The floor, however, is real too. His 2023 line of 42 receptions, 656 yards, and 5 touchdowns on 76 targets is a reminder of what the low end of his range looks like in practice. Drafters should price in both ends before committing a pick.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Higgins is ranked #45 overall and WR19. His market ADP is 37.5, which works out to pick 4.02 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That means the market is pulling him off the board in the fourth round. His bye week is 6, which is early enough to plan around without major disruption. If you want him, the fourth round is when you need to spend the pick.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
Over the 2023-2025 span, Higgins averaged 94.3 targets, 58 receptions, 804.3 receiving yards, and 8.7 receiving touchdowns per season. His per-season touchdown totals were 5 in 2023, 10 in 2024, and 11 in 2025.
The projection is 154.2 half-PPR fantasy points. That ranks him WR19 at the position and #45 overall, with a Draft Value of +25.3, placing him in Tier 7.
The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons lands at 76.8 points, and the 25th percentile is 119.6 points. His 2023 season, 42 receptions, 656 yards, and 5 touchdowns on 76 targets, is a real-world data point for what the low end of his range can look like.
His market ADP is 37.5, which translates to pick 4.02 in a 12-team snake draft. If you want Higgins, the fourth round is when you need to spend the pick.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
Get the book on your rivals →