Jaylen Warren — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Jaylen Warren's 2025 season was the clearest statement of his three-year career. He carried the ball 211 times for 958 rushing yards, added 40 receptions for 333 receiving yards, and scored 8 total touchdowns, 6 rushing and 2 receiving. That rushing attempt total is a significant step up from 149 in 2023 and 120 in 2024, and the touchdown production followed. His fumble rate also improved sharply: just 1 fumble in 2025 after 4 in 2023 and 2 in 2024. Over three seasons, his per-year averages settle at 160 rush attempts, 751 rushing yards, 46.3 receptions, 337.7 receiving yards, and 3.7 rushing touchdowns. The receiving floor is real. His three-year average of 55.3 targets per season gives him a consistent half-PPR cushion that pure between-the-tackles backs do not carry. Pittsburgh's bye falls in Week 9, which is a manageable scheduling note for roster construction.

What the model projects

The projection is 151.4 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. That produces a draft value of +24.0 points above replacement level at the running back position, placing Warren at RB24 and #48 overall in Tier 7.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide, which is consistent with the variance a running back in a committee role can carry. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons lands at 60.4 points, a number that reflects how badly things can go when volume disappears. The 25th percentile is 106.3 points, still a below-replacement outcome. The median simulated season is 160.0 points, slightly above the 151.4 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 207.1 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons produces 243.7 points. The gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes is 183.3 points, so the upside is real but so is the floor risk. Drafters who land the 2025-version season get a back approaching 250 points; drafters who land the low end get a near-empty roster spot.

How to draft him

Warren sits at #48 overall and RB24 in the rankings. The market is currently drafting him at pick 66.2, which works out to the 6th round, 6th pick in a 12-team draft. That is the window where you need to commit a pick to secure him. At RB24, he is a depth piece with a defined role rather than a cornerstone, so the calculus is straightforward: if you enter the sixth round needing a running back with receiving upside and a recent high-volume season on his resume, Warren is the name to target at that slot. His Tier 7 placement means there is no urgency to reach earlier, but waiting past his market draft position carries the risk of losing him to another roster.

Warren posted 211 rush attempts for 958 rushing yards and 6 rushing touchdowns, adding 40 receptions on 45 targets for 333 receiving yards and 2 receiving touchdowns. It was his highest-volume season across all three tracked years.

It has been consistent. His target totals over the three seasons are 74 in 2023, 47 in 2024, and 45 in 2025, for a three-year average of 55.3 targets per season. He has averaged 46.3 receptions and 337.7 receiving yards per year, giving him a real half-PPR floor.

The 10th-percentile simulated season lands at 60.4 points, and the 25th percentile is 106.3 points. Both are below the replacement-level threshold implied by his +24.0 draft value, so the floor is genuine. The band is wide enough that a bad outcome is a meaningful possibility, not just a theoretical one.

The market is taking him at an average of pick 66.2, which is the 6th round, 6th pick in a 12-team draft. If you want him, that is the pick range where you need to act. The model ranks him #48 overall and RB24.