#64 overall · PIT · 121.6 projected half-PPR pts · +4.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 67.0
Jaylen Warren — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jaylen Warren's 2025 season was the clearest statement of his career. He carried the ball 211 times for 958 rushing yards and 6 rushing touchdowns, adding 40 receptions for 333 yards and 2 receiving touchdowns. That is a back who earned a featured role and produced in it. Over three seasons (2023–2025), he has averaged 160 rush attempts, 751 rushing yards, 46.3 receptions, and 337.7 receiving yards per year — a consistent dual-threat profile that has only grown more prominent. His fumble rate has also improved: 4 fumbles in 2023, 2 in 2024, just 1 in 2025. Pittsburgh's offense has leaned on him, and the volume trend points in the right direction.
What the model projects
The model projects Warren at 121.6 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026, producing a draft value of +4.8 above replacement level at the running back position. That surplus lands him at #64 overall and RB23, sitting in Tier 8 on the board. The projection reflects a back who contributes in both the run and pass game but whose overall ceiling keeps him in the mid-tier RB range rather than among the position's elite.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 149 | 784 | 4 | 74 | 61 | 370 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 165.9 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 120 | 511 | 1 | 47 | 38 | 310 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 105.1 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 958 | 6 | 45 | 40 | 333 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 197.1 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 160 | 751 | 3.7 | 55.3 | 46.3 | 337.7 | 0.7 | 2.3 | — | — | 158.4 |
The range of outcomes
Warren's season-outcome band illustrates meaningful variance. His bye week falls on Week 9, a standard mid-season consideration. The upside case leans on a repeat or extension of his 2025 workload — 211 carries and 8 combined touchdowns is a real data point, not a projection. The downside case is also grounded in history: in 2024 he managed just 120 rush attempts, 511 rushing yards, and 1 rushing touchdown, a significant step back from his 2023 numbers. Role security in Pittsburgh's backfield has fluctuated year to year, and that remains the central risk. A drafter buying Warren is betting that 2025 was the new baseline, not an outlier.
How to draft him
Market ADP has Warren going at pick 67.0 — round 6, pick 7 in a 12-team draft (based on a median across 2 platforms). Our model places him at #64 overall, so the two numbers are closely aligned. Plan to spend a sixth-round pick if you want him. At that stage of the draft, he offers a positive draft value above replacement level, and his 2025 production gives him a legitimate floor argument. Know your bye schedule: Week 9 is a gap you will need to manage.
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Questions drafters ask
Warren ran 211 times for 958 yards and 6 rushing touchdowns, and caught 40 of 45 targets for 333 yards and 2 receiving touchdowns — the most productive season of his three-year career.
Role volatility. In 2024 he had just 120 rush attempts, 511 rushing yards, and 1 rushing touchdown — a sharp drop from his 2023 and 2025 output. His workload has not been consistent year to year, and that uncertainty is the central downside scenario.
Market ADP puts him at pick 67.0, which is round 6, pick 7 in a 12-team draft. That is the pick you should expect to spend based on where public drafts are currently pricing him.
Yes. Over the past three seasons he has averaged 46.3 receptions and 337.7 receiving yards per year, with a three-year average of 55.3 targets annually. In 2025 he added 2 receiving touchdowns on top of that volume.