#46 overall · PHI · 154.0 projected half-PPR pts · +25.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 33.1
DeVonta Smith — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
DeVonta Smith has posted 100-plus targets in two of the last three seasons, with a three-year average of 104.7 targets, 75.3 receptions, 969 receiving yards, and 6.3 receiving touchdowns per year. The 2023 season stands as his ceiling marker: 112 targets, 81 catches, 1,066 yards, and 7 touchdowns. The 2025 season showed a near-full return to that volume, with 113 targets, 77 receptions, 1,008 yards, and 4 touchdowns. That kind of target share, sustained across multiple seasons, is the foundation of a reliable fantasy asset. His draftValue sits at +25.0, meaning the projection places him meaningfully above replacement level at the wide receiver position. He lands at WR20 and #46 overall, inside Tier 7.
What the model projects
The projection is 154.0 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. His bye week falls in Week 10. The three-year averages that feed into his profile are consistent: 104.7 targets, 75.3 receptions, 969 receiving yards, and 6.3 receiving touchdowns per season. The 2025 line of 113 targets and 1,008 yards aligns closely with those averages, reinforcing the projection as a steady-state estimate rather than a spike or a discount.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 112 | 81 | 1066 | 7 | — | — | 1 | 187.1 |
| 2024 | 89 | 68 | 833 | 8 | 1 | 1 | — | 165.4 |
| 2025 | 113 | 77 | 1008 | 4 | — | — | — | 163.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 104.7 | 75.3 | 969 | 6.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 172.4 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which reflects the real variance a receiver at this profile can produce. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 76.5 points, a number that reflects a genuine bust scenario. The 25th percentile is 119.3 points, the median simulated season lands at 164.6 points, the 75th percentile reaches 198.5 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above 230.8 points. The gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes is more than 154 points, so the floor and ceiling here are genuinely far apart. Drafters who land the upside scenario get a WR well above the projection; those who land the downside scenario get a player who underperforms his draft cost significantly. The median of 164.6 sits above the 154.0 point estimate, so the distribution carries a slight upward skew.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Smith at pick 33.1 on average, which translates to the 3rd round, 9th pick in a 12-team draft. That is where you will need to spend a pick to secure him. Our rankings place him at #46 overall and WR20. Plan accordingly: if Smith is a target, the market will take him well before pick 46, so a 3rd-round commitment is the realistic price of admission. His Week 10 bye is worth noting for roster management purposes.
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Questions drafters ask
Smith has averaged 104.7 targets per season over the 2023-2025 span. He saw 112 targets in 2023, 89 in 2024, and 113 in 2025, making him a consistent high-volume target in two of those three years.
The projection is 154.0 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season from the outcome band is 164.6 points, slightly above the point estimate, indicating the distribution carries a modest upward skew.
The p10 outcome, meaning 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below this number, is 76.5 points. That is a significant underperformance relative to the 154.0 projection and represents a genuine bust floor drafters should weigh.
The market ADP is 33.1, which works out to the 3rd round, 9th pick in a 12-team draft. That is the average price other drafters are paying across the platforms that feed this median, so plan to spend a 3rd-round pick if he is on your target list.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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