#33 overall · PHI · 156.3 projected half-PPR pts · +33.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 33.6
DeVonta Smith — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
DeVonta Smith has been one of the most consistent target-earners at his position over the past three seasons. From 2023 through 2025, he averaged 104.7 targets, 75.3 receptions, and 969 receiving yards per season — a floor that very few receivers sustain across a three-year window. His touchdown production has ranged from 4 to 8 scores in that span, with a three-year average of 6.3 receiving touchdowns. The 2024 season showed a dip in yardage (833) but still produced 8 receiving touchdowns, demonstrating that his scoring upside doesn't depend on volume alone. He bounced back in 2025 with 1,008 yards on 113 targets. The profile is a high-floor, volume-driven receiver with a real ceiling when the end-zone looks his way.
What the model projects
Our projection has Smith at 156.3 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026, generating a Draft Value of +33.8 above replacement level at the wide receiver position. That surplus places him #33 overall on the board and WR19 among all wide receivers. He sits in Tier 6. The projection reflects his established target share and the consistency of his receiving-yard production, balanced against the touchdown variance visible in his recent history.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 112 | 81 | 1066 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 187.1 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 89 | 68 | 833 | 8 | — | 0 | 0 | 165.4 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 113 | 77 | 1008 | 4 | — | 0 | 0 | 163.3 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 0.3 | 0.3 | — | 104.7 | 75.3 | 969 | 6.3 | 0.3 | — | — | 172.4 |
The range of outcomes
Smith's season-outcome band illustrates a receiver whose floor is meaningful but whose ceiling is tied closely to touchdown fortune. His three-year receiving-touchdown range of 4 to 8 scores is the primary lever — in a year where he lands near the low end (as in 2025), the yardage volume keeps him relevant but limits his upside. In a year where the touchdowns return to 7 or 8 (as in 2023 and 2024), the combination of 1,000-plus yards and a strong TD total pushes him well into WR2 territory. The 2024 season is the cautionary tale on yardage — 833 yards is a real downside scenario — while 2023's 1,066-yard, 7-touchdown line represents what a strong outcome looks like. His bye in Week 10 is a manageable scheduling note worth flagging for roster construction.
How to draft him
The market is currently taking Smith at an average of pick 33.6, which translates to the 3rd round, 10th pick in a 12-team snake draft (based on a median across two platforms). Our model places him at #33 overall, so the draft slot and the rank are closely aligned. In practical terms, if you want Smith, you need to be ready to spend a third-round pick to get him. Given his consistent target volume and the real possibility of a touchdown-heavy bounce-back, he fits cleanly as a WR2 in your starting lineup with a defined role from day one.
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Questions drafters ask
Consistently high — he averaged 104.7 targets per season from 2023 through 2025, with individual season totals of 112 (2023), 89 (2024), and 113 (2025). That kind of sustained target share is the foundation of his fantasy value.
Quite a bit. His receiving-yard production has been relatively stable (833–1,066 yards over three seasons), but his touchdown totals have swung from 4 to 8. In 2024, he scored 8 times on just 833 yards; in 2025, he posted 1,008 yards but only 4 touchdowns. The TD variance is the biggest swing factor in his seasonal outcomes.
Smith projects at 156.3 half-PPR points with a Draft Value of +33.8 above replacement level, placing him #33 overall and WR19. He sits in Tier 6. The positive Draft Value confirms he projects meaningfully above the replacement-level wide receiver in a 12-team league.
The market is currently taking him at an average of pick 33.6 — round 3, pick 10 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. If he's on your board, plan to use a third-round selection to secure him.