#18 overall · LAR · 170.4 projected half-PPR pts · +53.5 Draft Value · Market ADP 33.1
Kyren Williams — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Kyren Williams has been one of the most consistent volume backs in the league across three seasons. He posted 1,144 rush yards and 12 rush touchdowns in 2023, followed by 1,299 rush yards and 14 rush touchdowns in 2024, then 1,252 rush yards and 10 rush touchdowns in 2025. Over that three-year stretch, he averaged 267.7 rush attempts, 1,231.7 rush yards, 223 receiving yards, and 34 receptions per season. The workload has been real and recurring. His receiving role adds a floor that pure between-the-tackles backs don't carry — 50 targets and 36 receptions in 2025 alone. Williams lands at RB8 with a +53.5 draft value above replacement, sitting in Tier 4 on the overall board. That is a back who has earned his spot through production, not projection.
What the model projects
The model projects Williams at 170.4 half-PPR fantasy points this season, placing him #18 overall and RB8. His +53.5 draft value reflects meaningful production above the replacement-level baseline at running back in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection is grounded in a three-year average of 267.7 rush attempts and 46 targets per season — a usage profile that sustains fantasy relevance even in seasons where touchdown volume dips. His bye week falls in Week 11.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 228 | 1144 | 12 | 48 | 32 | 206 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 237.0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 316 | 1299 | 14 | 40 | 34 | 182 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 255.1 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 1252 | 10 | 50 | 36 | 281 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 245.3 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 267.7 | 1231.7 | 12 | 46 | 34 | 223 | 2.7 | 3.3 | — | — | 250.7 |
The range of outcomes
Williams's simulated season band runs from a p10 floor to a p90 ceiling, reflecting the variance inherent to a high-volume running back. The upside case looks like 2024: 316 rush attempts, 1,299 yards, 14 rush touchdowns, and 34 receptions. The downside case looks more like a touchdown regression year — his 2025 rush touchdown total dropped to 10 after back-to-back double-digit seasons, showing that scoring variance is real. Fumbles are a persistent concern: he lost 2 in 2023, 3 in 2024, and 2 in 2025, averaging 2.3 fumbles lost per season over that span. Total fumbles over the same period averaged 3.3 per season. Neither figure is alarming for a back with his volume, but it is a known risk embedded in the range.
How to draft him
Market ADP has Williams going at pick 33.1 — that is round 3, pick 9 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. Our model ranks him #18 overall and RB8. Plan to spend a third-round pick if you want him on your roster. At that draft slot, you can build your first two rounds around other positions and still land a back with three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. His Week 11 bye is manageable but worth noting when constructing your roster depth.
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Questions drafters ask
Consistent and heavy. He averaged 267.7 rush attempts, 1,231.7 rush yards, and 46 targets per season from 2023 through 2025. His single-season rush attempt totals were 228 (2023), 316 (2024), and 259 (2025).
He has scored double-digit rush touchdowns in two of the past three seasons — 12 in 2023 and 14 in 2024 — with a dip to 10 in 2025. He has also added receiving touchdowns each year: 3, 2, and 3 respectively. Touchdown variance is real, but the floor has remained solid.
It is worth monitoring. Williams lost 2 fumbles in 2023, 3 in 2024, and 2 in 2025 — an average of 2.3 fumbles lost per season. His total fumbles (including those recovered) averaged 3.3 per season over the same stretch. For a back with his volume, it is a known risk rather than a disqualifying one.
Market ADP puts him at pick 33.1 — round 3, pick 9 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. If you want him, budget a third-round pick.