#11 overall · LAR · 213.9 projected half-PPR pts · +86.7 Draft Value · Market ADP 26.7
Kyren Williams — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Three seasons in, Kyren Williams has built one of the more consistent rushing profiles at the position. He has cleared 1,100 rushing yards in each of the past three years, posting 1,144 in 2023, 1,299 in 2024, and 1,252 in 2025. His three-year averages tell the same story: 267.7 rush attempts, 1,231.7 rushing yards, 12 rushing touchdowns, and 34 receptions per season. The touchdown production is real and repeatable, with double-digit rushing scores in each of the last two years. His receiving work has grown quietly, too: targets climbed from 48 in 2023 to 50 in 2025, and receiving yards jumped to 281 last season, his highest single-season total in the three-year window. The fumble numbers bear watching, with 5 fumbles in 2024 and 3 lost over the three-year span on average, but 2025 showed improvement back to 2 fumbles and 2 lost. The overall profile is a high-volume, high-touchdown back with a real receiving floor.
What the model projects
The projection is 213.9 half-PPR fantasy points. That output produces a draft value of +86.7 points above replacement level at the running back position. Williams ranks #11 overall and RB7 in this format, placing him in Tier 3 of the rankings. His bye week is Week 11.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 228 | 1144 | 12 | 48 | 32 | 206 | 3 | 3 | 237.0 |
| 2024 | 316 | 1299 | 14 | 40 | 34 | 182 | 2 | 5 | 255.1 |
| 2025 | 259 | 1252 | 10 | 50 | 36 | 281 | 3 | 2 | 245.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 267.7 | 1231.7 | 12 | 46 | 34 | 223 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 250.7 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which reflects the variance that comes with a workhorse back. At the pessimistic end, the 10th-percentile outcome is 117.2 points: a season where volume, touchdowns, or both fall well short. The 25th percentile lands at 168.7 points, still a meaningful step below the projection. The median simulated season comes in at 225.4 points, close to but slightly above the point estimate of 213.9. The 75th percentile reaches 273.7 points, and the 90th-percentile outcome is 306.9 points: a season where the rushing touchdowns stay elevated and the volume holds. The gap between the floor and ceiling is nearly 190 points, so the upside is genuine and the downside is real. Drafters who land the high end of this band get a top-tier season; those who land the low end will feel the miss.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Williams is ranked #11 overall and RB7. The market is currently drafting him at pick 26.7 on average, which works out to the 3rd round, 3rd pick in a 12-team snake draft. That is the window where you need to be ready to spend a pick if you want him on your roster. Given his bye falls in Week 11, plan your roster construction accordingly so you have adequate coverage at that point in the season.
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Questions drafters ask
Very consistent. He has posted 1,144, 1,299, and 1,252 rushing yards in 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, with a three-year average of 1,231.7 yards on 267.7 attempts per season.
The projection is 213.9 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks #11 overall and RB7, with a draft value of +86.7 points above replacement level, placing him in Tier 3.
The 10th-percentile simulated season is 117.2 points and the 90th percentile is 306.9 points. The median simulated season is 225.4 points. The spread of nearly 190 points between the floor and ceiling reflects the variance of a high-volume back.
They are worth monitoring. Williams fumbled 5 times in 2024 and lost 3, but the three-year averages are 3.3 fumbles and 2.7 lost per season. In 2025 he was back down to 2 fumbles and 2 lost, which is the best mark of the three-year window.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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