#19 overall · BAL · 168.5 projected half-PPR pts · +51.6 Draft Value · Market ADP 17.6
Derrick Henry — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Derrick Henry has posted back-to-back 1,500-plus rushing yard seasons — 1,921 yards on 325 attempts in 2024, followed by 1,595 yards on 307 attempts in 2025. Over the last three seasons he has averaged 304 rush attempts, 1,561 rush yards, and 14.7 rush touchdowns per year. That is a workload profile that very few backs sustain, and Henry has sustained it deep into his career. He lands in Baltimore with a run-first identity that fits his style, and his bye falls on Week 13 — late enough that it costs you nothing in the early weeks when standings are being shaped. His draftValue sits at +51.6, meaning he projects well above replacement level at the running back position. He comes in at RB9 and #19 overall, slotted in Tier 4 on the board.
What the model projects
The projection is 168.5 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That number is built on a three-year track record of high-volume rushing, consistent touchdown production, and a modest but real receiving role — he has averaged 20.7 receptions and 185.7 receiving yards per season over the last three years. The receiving contribution is not a featured part of his game, but it is real and it adds floor. At RB9 and #19 overall, the model sees him as a clear starter-tier back with a positive surplus over replacement.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 280 | 1167 | 12 | 36 | 28 | 214 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 232.7 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 325 | 1921 | 16 | 22 | 19 | 193 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 326.9 |
| 2025 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 307 | 1595 | 16 | 21 | 15 | 150 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 272.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 1.3 | 0.7 | 4.7 | 0.7 | — | 304 | 1561 | 14.7 | 26.3 | 20.7 | 185.7 | 0.7 | 2.3 | — | — | 280.4 |
The range of outcomes
The upside case is straightforward: Henry has shown he can carry 300-plus attempts and score at a high rate. In 2024 he rushed for 1,921 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground, adding 2 receiving scores for 18 combined touchdowns. In 2025 he rushed for 1,595 yards and 16 rushing touchdowns with no receiving scores. The floor concern is fumbles — he lost 1 fumble in 2024 and 3 in 2025, and a fumble problem that costs him carries is the clearest path to a disappointing season. Age-related decline in efficiency or a reduced role are the other downside scenarios. The upside, if the volume and touchdown rate hold, is a season that looks a lot like 2024 or 2025.
How to draft him
Market ADP has Henry going at pick 17.6 — that is round 2, pick 6 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. He ranks #19 overall by our draftValue model. Plan to spend a second-round pick if you want him on your roster. His Week 13 bye is late in the season, so you will not need to scramble for a fill-in during the stretch run. Lock in your RB room around him and build from there.
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Questions drafters ask
He has averaged 304 rush attempts and 1,561 rush yards per season over the 2023–2025 stretch. His single-season peaks in that window were 325 attempts and 1,921 yards in 2024.
168.5 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks RB9 at his position and #19 overall, with a draftValue of +51.6 above replacement level.
Market ADP puts him at pick 17.6 — round 2, pick 6 in a 12-team draft. That is the price the market is currently charging, drawn from a median across two platforms.
Fumbles are the clearest concern. He lost 1 fumble in 2024 and 3 in 2025, and a fumble problem that leads to a reduced role is the most direct path to a disappointing fantasy season.