Derrick Henry — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Three straight seasons of 280-plus rush attempts. Three straight seasons of double-digit rushing touchdowns. Derrick Henry has averaged 304 carries, 1,561 rush yards, and 14.7 rushing touchdowns per season over the last three years, and Baltimore has shown no inclination to lighten that workload. The 2024 season was his best of the three: 325 attempts, 1,921 rush yards, 16 rushing touchdowns, and 2 receiving touchdowns. The 2025 follow-up was nearly as heavy: 307 attempts, 1,595 rush yards, 16 rushing touchdowns again. Volume at this level is rare, and touchdowns at this rate are rarer. His draftValue sits at +79.5, meaning the projection puts him 79.5 points above replacement level at the running back position. That surplus is the foundation of his case.

What the model projects

The projection is 207.7 half-PPR fantasy points. That places Henry at RB9 by position rank and #13 overall. He lands in Tier 3 of the overall rankings. The receiving contribution is modest by design: his three-year averages show 20.7 receptions, 185.7 receiving yards, and 0.7 receiving touchdowns per season, and the projection reflects that profile. The rushing floor is what drives the number. One note worth flagging: his fumble rate has ticked up over the past two seasons, with 3 fumbles in 2024 and 4 in 2025, including 1 and 3 lost respectively. That is a real variable in any season-long outlook.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide, which is typical for a high-volume back. The median simulated season lands at 219.2 points, a touch above the 207.7 point estimate. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or below 110.9 points; the top 10 percent reach 300.8 or higher. The 25th-to-75th-percentile range runs from 162.4 to 267.6 points, a spread of more than 100 points. The downside is real: a bad season at the p10 level would represent a significant miss on a second-round pick. The upside is equally real: a p90 season at 300.8 points would rank among the strongest running back outputs in any given year. Henry's bye falls in Week 13, which is a consideration for managers in leagues where that week overlaps with playoff schedules.

How to draft him

The market is drafting Henry at an average of pick 13.9, which works out to the 2nd pick of the 2nd round in a 12-team snake draft (2.02). That is consistent with his #13 overall rank by draftValue. If you want him, the second round is where you will need to spend the pick. His RB9 position rank means there are eight running backs the model values above him, so drafters who prioritize the position early will need to decide by the turn of the second round whether Henry fits their build. The wide outcome band is the central tension: the same workload that creates the upside also creates the downside, and the fumble trend over the last two seasons is a variable to weigh before committing.

Based on a market ADP of 13.9 across two platforms, Henry is going at pick 2.02 in a 12-team snake draft. If you want him, you need to spend your second-round pick.

Very consistent. Over the last three seasons he has averaged 304 rush attempts and 1,561 rush yards per year, with a low of 280 attempts in 2023 and a high of 325 in 2024. The projection of 207.7 points and a +79.5 draftValue are built on that kind of volume.

The p10 simulated season lands at 110.9 half-PPR points. That is the bottom 10 percent of simulated outcomes, and it represents a significant shortfall relative to the 207.7 point projection. The fumble trend is also worth noting: Henry lost 1 fumble in 2024 and 3 in 2025.

Not particularly. His three-year averages show 20.7 receptions, 185.7 receiving yards, and 0.7 receiving touchdowns per season. His value is almost entirely rushing-based, which makes him somewhat less sensitive to PPR scoring than backs with heavier pass-game roles.