#10 overall · SF · 220.0 projected half-PPR pts · +91.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 5.9
Christian McCaffrey — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
McCaffrey's 2025 season answers the most important question about him: the full workload is back. He logged 311 rush attempts, 129 targets, 102 receptions, 924 receiving yards, 1,202 rushing yards, 10 rushing touchdowns, and 7 receiving touchdowns. That is a complete, high-volume season at every level of the offense. The 2023 campaign tells the same story from a different angle: 272 carries, 83 targets, 67 receptions, 1,459 rushing yards, 564 receiving yards, 14 rushing touchdowns, and 7 receiving touchdowns. Two of the three seasons in the three-year window show what a healthy McCaffrey season looks like. The three-year averages across 2023-2025 sit at 211 rush attempts, 77 targets, 61.3 receptions, 954.3 rushing yards, 544.7 receiving yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, and 4.7 receiving touchdowns per season. That average is pulled down by 2024, which produced only 50 carries, 19 targets, and 202 rushing yards. The floor concern is real, but the ceiling when he is on the field is among the most complete skill sets at the position.
What the model projects
The projection is 220.0 half-PPR fantasy points. McCaffrey carries a draft value of +91.8, meaning he projects 91.8 points above the replacement-level running back in a 12-team half-PPR format. That places him at RB6 at his position and #10 overall, sitting in Tier 3 of the rankings. The point estimate of 220.0 sits below the median simulated season of 231.5, which reflects the shape of his outcome distribution: the downside scenarios pull the point estimate lower than the typical result when he plays a full season.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 272 | 1459 | 14 | 83 | 67 | 564 | 7 | 3 | 357.8 |
| 2024 | 50 | 202 | — | 19 | 15 | 146 | — | 1 | 40.3 |
| 2025 | 311 | 1202 | 10 | 129 | 102 | 924 | 7 | 2 | 365.6 |
| 3-yr avg | 211 | 954.3 | 8 | 77 | 61.3 | 544.7 | 4.7 | 2 | 256.8 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, and that width is the central fact about McCaffrey in 2026 drafts. In the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons, he finishes at 123.4 points. The 25th percentile is 174.8. The median is 231.5. The 75th percentile is 279.8, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons reaches 312.9. The spread from p10 to p90 is 189.5 points, a range that reflects how dramatically his season-to-season output has varied across the three-year window. A full-season McCaffrey, as 2023 and 2025 demonstrate, produces at the high end of that band. The 2024 line, 50 carries and 202 rushing yards, anchors the low end. Drafters are not buying a stable, predictable stat line; they are buying a high-median, high-variance asset.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP is 5.9, drawn from two platforms, which translates to pick 1.06 in a 12-team snake draft. That means the sixth pick of the first round is roughly when McCaffrey comes off the table. His bye is Week 8, which is worth noting for roster planning but is not a reason to avoid a first-round pick. At RB6 and #10 overall with a +91.8 draft value, he ranks inside the top ten across all positions. Drafters who want him need to be prepared to use a late first-round pick to secure him. If he is still available at that slot, the decision is straightforward: the projection and the outcome band both support spending a first-round pick here.
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Questions drafters ask
The 2025 season is the clearest recent example: 311 rush attempts, 1,202 rushing yards, 10 rushing touchdowns, 129 targets, 102 receptions, 924 receiving yards, and 7 receiving touchdowns. The 2023 season was similarly complete with 272 carries, 1,459 rushing yards, 14 rushing touchdowns, 83 targets, 67 receptions, and 564 receiving yards.
The simulated season band runs from 123.4 points at the 10th percentile to 312.9 at the 90th percentile. The median is 231.5. The low end of that band is grounded in the 2024 season, which produced only 50 rush attempts, 202 rushing yards, and 19 targets.
He is RB6 at his position and #10 overall, sitting in Tier 3. His draft value is +91.8, meaning the projection of 220.0 half-PPR points sits 91.8 points above the replacement-level running back in a 12-team half-PPR format.
Market ADP is 5.9 across two platforms, which works out to pick 1.06 in a 12-team snake draft. Plan to use the sixth pick of the first round if you want him.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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