#6 overall · DET · 222.5 projected half-PPR pts · +100.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 10.4
Amon-Ra St. Brown — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been one of the most consistent volume receivers in the NFL over the past three seasons. From 2023 through 2025, he averaged 159 targets, 117 receptions, 1,393 receiving yards, and 11 receiving touchdowns per season. That is not a flash-in-the-pan profile — it is a floor built on target share and route running that has held up year after year. In 2023 he posted 164 targets, 119 receptions, 1,515 yards, and 10 touchdowns. In 2024: 141 targets, 115 receptions, 1,263 yards, and 12 touchdowns. In 2025: 172 targets, 117 receptions, 1,401 yards, and 11 touchdowns. Three straight seasons of 115-plus catches and 1,200-plus yards. The touchdown production has been real and repeatable. Detroit's offense has made him its central hub, and nothing in the three-year record suggests that relationship is loosening.
What the model projects
Our projection has St. Brown at 222.5 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That output produces a Draft Value of +100.0 — meaning he projects 100 points above the replacement-level wide receiver in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. That surplus ranks him #6 overall on the board and WR4 at his position. He sits in Tier 2, a cluster of players whose value-over-replacement is meaningfully separated from the tiers below. His bye week is Week 6.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 164 | 119 | 1515 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 271.4 |
| 2024 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 141 | 115 | 1263 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 258.7 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 172 | 117 | 1401 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 265.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 0.3 | — | 3 | 13 | — | 159 | 117 | 1393 | 11 | 1 | — | — | 266.4 |
The range of outcomes
St. Brown's three-year track record compresses his variance considerably, but simulated season outcomes still show a meaningful spread. A bad season — bottom 10% of simulations — lands at his p10. A typical season sits at his p50 median. A great season — top 10% of simulations — reaches his p90. The primary levers on that range are target volume and touchdown rate. His 2025 target total of 172 was a three-year high, while his 2024 touchdown rate of 12 scores on 141 targets was his peak efficiency mark. A season that combines elevated targets with strong red-zone conversion pushes toward the top of the band; a year where touchdowns regress toward 10 and targets dip toward 141 pulls toward the bottom. The floor, anchored by three consecutive 115-catch seasons, is among the sturdier ones at the position.
How to draft him
Market ADP has St. Brown going at pick 10.4 across two platforms — that translates to the 10th pick of the first round in a 12-team draft (1.10). Our model ranks him #6 overall and WR4. If you want him, you will need to spend a late first-round pick to get him. Plan accordingly: in a standard snake draft, he will be off the board before the turn of the first round is complete. His Week 6 bye is early enough that it should not factor heavily into draft-day decisions, but it is worth noting when constructing your roster's bye-week depth.
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Questions drafters ask
Extremely consistent. Over the past three seasons (2023–2025) he averaged 159 targets and 117 receptions per year. His single-season target totals were 164 (2023), 141 (2024), and 172 (2025) — never dipping below 141 in any of those years.
Our projection has him at 222.5 half-PPR points in 2026, generating a Draft Value of +100.0 points above replacement. That ranks him #6 overall and WR4, placing him in Tier 2 on the full board.
Market ADP (median across two platforms) has him going at pick 10.4, which is the 10th pick of round 1 in a 12-team draft. If you want him, you need to be ready to use a late first-round selection.
He has scored 10, 12, and 11 receiving touchdowns in 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, for a three-year average of 11 per season. That consistency across three seasons suggests the red-zone role is real, though year-to-year variance between roughly 10 and 12 scores is the realistic range.