#10 overall · DET · 221.7 projected half-PPR pts · +92.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 8.2
Amon-Ra St. Brown — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been one of the most consistent volume receivers in the NFL over the past three seasons. From 2023 through 2025, he averaged 159 targets, 117 receptions, 1,393 receiving yards, and 11 receiving touchdowns per year. That is not a flash-in-the-pan profile; it is a floor built on target share and efficiency. In 2023 he saw 164 targets and turned them into 119 catches for 1,515 yards and 10 touchdowns. In 2024 he caught 115 of 141 targets for 1,263 yards and 12 scores. In 2025 he ran it back with 117 catches on 172 targets for 1,401 yards and 11 touchdowns. Three straight seasons of 115-plus receptions, 1,263-plus yards, and double-digit touchdowns is a remarkably stable production profile. The draftValue sits at +92.8, meaning the projection puts him well above replacement level at the wide receiver position. He ranks WR4 and #10 overall.
What the model projects
The projection for St. Brown is 221.7 half-PPR fantasy points. That number sits below his three-year average actual production, which reflects the natural variance built into any forward-looking estimate. He is placed in Tier 3 of the overall rankings, carrying a draftValue of +92.8. His positionRank is WR4 and his overallRank is #10 overall. The projection is the single headline number; the median simulated season, at 232.3 points, runs slightly above it, and both are worth keeping in mind as you set expectations.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 164 | 119 | 1515 | 10 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 271.4 |
| 2024 | 141 | 115 | 1263 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 258.7 |
| 2025 | 172 | 117 | 1401 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 265.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 159 | 117 | 1393 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 266.4 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band for St. Brown is wide enough to respect but not alarming for a player of his track record. In a bad season, the bottom 10 percent of simulated outcomes lands at 144.3 points. The 25th percentile is 187.1 points, still a useful fantasy contributor. The median simulated season is 232.3 points. The 75th percentile reaches 266.1 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons comes in at 298.5 points. The gap between the 10th and 90th percentile is roughly 154 points, which is meaningful. His three-year history of 1-fumble-lost seasons and consistent target volume suggest the floor is not a fragile one, but the band makes clear that outcomes well above and well below the projection are both live possibilities.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
St. Brown's market ADP is 8.2, which works out to pick 1.08 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That means the market is pricing him as a late-first-round selection. His overallRank is #10 overall and his positionRank is WR4. If you are drafting from a slot where pick 8 falls in your range, this is the window where you would need to commit to him. His bye week is 6, which is early enough that you will want a capable fill-in on the roster before the season starts.
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Questions drafters ask
Very. Over the three seasons from 2023 to 2025, he averaged 159 targets and 117 receptions per year. He hit 164 targets in 2023, 141 in 2024, and 172 in 2025, never dipping below 115 catches in any of those seasons.
The 10th-percentile simulated season lands at 144.3 half-PPR points. The 25th percentile is 187.1 points. Those are the numbers that define the bad-season range in the model's simulated outcomes.
His market ADP is 8.2, which translates to pick 1.08 in a 12-team draft. That is a late-first-round commitment, based on a median across two platforms.
He has scored 10, 12, and 11 receiving touchdowns in 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, for a three-year average of 11 per season. That is a consistent pattern across three full years of data.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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