#111 overall · HOU · 157.8 projected half-PPR pts · -13.3 Draft Value · Market ADP 135.7
Ka'imi Fairbairn — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Ka'imi Fairbairn has been one of the busiest kickers in the league over the past three seasons. His 2025 campaign was his best on record: 44 field goals made on 48 attempts, with 9 from 50-plus yards and a career-high 16 from 40-49. That 2025 accuracy rate — 44 of 48 — built on a strong 2023 (27 of 28) and a higher-volume 2024 (36 of 42). Averaged across all three years, he has connected on 35.7 field goals and 27.7 extra points per season on 39.3 attempts. The volume is real, and the long-range work is consistent. He sits at K2 in the position rankings, which means the model sees him as the second-most valuable kicker in a 12-team half-PPR format.
What the model projects
The projection is 157.8 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -13.3, which places him below replacement level at the position in this format — a number that reflects the structural reality of kicker value in 12-team half-PPR, not a verdict on his talent. He ranks #111 overall and K2 at his position, sitting in Tier 9. Houston's bye is Week 8, which is worth noting when building a roster around him.
| FG | FGM | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 27 | 1 | 21 | 113.0 |
| 2024 | 36 | 6 | 34 | 166.0 |
| 2025 | 44 | 3 | 28 | 191.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 35.7 | 3.3 | 27.7 | 24.4 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, as it tends to be at the kicker position. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons lands at 124.9 points. The 25th percentile is 145.9. The median simulated season comes in at 167.2 points, which sits above the 157.8 point estimate. The 75th percentile is 178.0, and the top 10% of simulated seasons reaches 184.6. The gap between a bad season and a great one spans roughly 60 points, so roster construction around him should account for that variance. His 2024 season — 36 made on 42 attempts with 6 misses — is a useful reminder that even a high-volume year can carry accuracy risk.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Fairbairn at an average of pick 135.7, which works out to round 12, pick 4 in a 12-team draft. That is the window you are working with if you want him. At K2 and #111 overall, he is one of the earlier kicker investments the rankings support. Most drafters wait on the position, so the practical question is whether you want to secure the K2 option in round 12 or take your chances on what remains later. His bye in Week 8 is a minor scheduling note worth keeping in mind when finalizing your roster.
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Questions drafters ask
Across 2023-2025, he averaged 35.7 made field goals on 39.3 attempts per season, with an average of 3.3 misses per year. His best accuracy came in 2023 (27 of 28) and his best volume in 2025 (44 of 48).
In 2025 he made 9 field goals from 50-plus yards and 16 from 40-49. In 2024 he made 13 from 50-plus and 4 from 40-49. In 2023 he made 5 from 50-plus and 2 from 40-49. The long-range volume has been a consistent part of his profile.
The point estimate is 157.8 half-PPR fantasy points. The simulated season band runs from 124.9 at the 10th percentile to 184.6 at the 90th percentile, with a median of 167.2.
The market ADP is 135.7, which translates to round 12, pick 4 in a 12-team draft. That figure is drawn from 2 platforms, so treat it as a directional signal rather than a precise number.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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