Ka'imi Fairbairn — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Ka'imi Fairbairn is the kicker for a Houston offense that keeps him busy. Over the past three seasons, he has averaged 39.3 field goal attempts and 28.7 extra point attempts per year. The volume trend is moving in the right direction: he attempted 48 field goals in 2025, up from 42 in 2024 and 28 in 2023. He has also been accurate — just 3.3 misses per season on average over that three-year stretch, and in 2025 he converted 44 of 48 field goal attempts. That combination of high attempt volume and reliable accuracy is the foundation of kicker value in fantasy, and Fairbairn has demonstrated both consistently.

What the model projects

Fairbairn projects for 129.9 half-PPR fantasy points this season. His draft value sits at +0.0, meaning he projects right at replacement level for the kicker position. He ranks K1 at his position and #72 overall, placed in Tier 9 on the board. The projection reflects a kicker whose workload and efficiency have been steady enough to earn the top spot at the position, even if the surplus over replacement is slim by design — kicker value-over-replacement compresses quickly at the top of the position.

The range of outcomes

Kicker scoring variance is driven primarily by two things: how often the offense reaches field goal range, and how many of those attempts are converted. Fairbairn's three-year history shows meaningful year-to-year swings in attempt volume — 28 field goal attempts in 2023, 42 in 2024, 48 in 2025 — which illustrates how much the surrounding offense shapes a kicker's ceiling and floor. In a season where Houston's offense stalls or scores more touchdowns inside the red zone, extra point volume rises but field goal attempts fall, compressing his total. In a season where the offense moves the ball efficiently but settles for kicks, attempt volume climbs and so does his ceiling. His accuracy has been a stabilizing factor, averaging only 3.3 misses per season over the last three years.

How to draft him

Fairbairn does not have a market ADP — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. That is typical for kickers in snake drafts, where the position is almost universally left to the final rounds. His rank of #72 overall and K1 at his position make him the top kicker in the model's ordering. In a 12-team league, plan to address the kicker slot in the final round or two and target Fairbairn first among the position. His bye falls in Week 8, so factor that into your roster management if you draft him. Note that his +0.0 draft value means the model sees him at replacement level for the position — the case for him is that he is the best available option at a position where the gap between the top and the rest is narrow.

He ranks K1 and #72 overall with a projected 129.9 half-PPR points, making him the top kicker in the model's ordering. His draft value is +0.0, so he projects right at replacement level — the position compresses quickly. The argument for targeting him specifically is his three-year average of 39.3 field goal attempts and only 3.3 misses per season, with volume climbing to 48 attempts in 2025.

Over the 2023–2025 seasons, he averaged 35.7 made field goals on 39.3 attempts — roughly 3.3 misses per season. In 2025 he made 44 of 48 attempts, and in 2024 he made 36 of 42. The accuracy has been reliable across all three seasons.

He has no market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one — standard for kickers. In practice, plan to take him in the final round or two of a 12-team snake draft. He is the model's K1, so if you want the top-ranked kicker, target him before the position runs out at the end of the draft.

Fairbairn's bye is Week 8. Since most leagues carry only one kicker, you will need a streaming option that week. It is worth noting when you draft him so you are not caught without coverage mid-season.