Tyrone Tracy — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Tyrone Tracy has logged back-to-back seasons as a volume carrier for the Giants. In 2024 he posted 192 rush attempts for 839 yards and 5 rushing touchdowns, adding 38 receptions on 53 targets for 284 receiving yards and 1 receiving touchdown. In 2025 the rushing volume held: 176 attempts, 740 yards, and he caught 36 of 48 targets for 288 receiving yards and 2 receiving touchdowns. The three-year averages tell a consistent story: roughly 184 rush attempts, 789.5 rushing yards, 37 receptions, 50.5 targets, and 286 receiving yards per season. That kind of dual-threat workload at a position that rewards volume is the foundation of any late-round case for Tracy. The fumble situation improved meaningfully from 2024 (4 fumbles, 2 lost) to 2025 (1 fumble, 1 lost), which removes one of the cleaner arguments against him.

What the model projects

The projection for Tracy is 78.9 half-PPR fantasy points. His draftValue is -48.3, placing him #206 overall and RB45 in Tier 9. A negative draftValue means the projection sits below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 74.9 points, close to the point estimate. These numbers reflect a player whose projected workload, in this format and against this replacement baseline, does not clear the bar.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide, which is the defining feature of Tracy's profile. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons lands at 12.0 points. The 25th percentile is 35.2 points. The median is 74.9 points. The 75th percentile reaches 117.4 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons finishes at 164.9 points. That is a spread of roughly 153 points from p10 to p90. The upside at p90 is real: 164.9 points would represent a meaningful fantasy contributor. The downside at p10 is equally real: 12.0 points is a near-total loss of a roster spot. Drafters considering Tracy need to be comfortable with that full range, not just the optimistic half of it.

How to draft him

Tracy is #206 overall and RB45 in Tier 9. His market ADP is 149.4, which works out to the 13th round, 5th pick in a 12-team draft (based on a median across 2 platforms). That means the market is pricing him off most rosters entirely, and you would be spending a Round 13 pick to secure him. At that draft slot the cost is low, but the projection and draftValue make clear this is a depth or handcuff play, not a starter. His bye is Week 8. If you are building late-round depth at running back and want a player with established volume and a wide upside band, Tracy fits that role. Go in with eyes open on the downside: the p10 outcome is 12.0 points for the season.

His market ADP of 149.4 puts him in Round 13 of a 12-team draft. The projection is 78.9 points and his draftValue is -48.3, meaning he projects below replacement level at RB. The cost is minimal, but so is the floor: the p10 simulated outcome is just 12.0 points for the season.

Over the past two seasons he has averaged roughly 184 rush attempts, 789.5 rushing yards, 37 receptions, and 50.5 targets per year. That is consistent dual-threat volume, even if the efficiency numbers have not translated into elite fantasy production.

It improved significantly. He had 4 fumbles and 2 lost in 2024, then dropped to 1 fumble and 1 lost in 2025. One season of improvement is not a guarantee, but the trend is the right direction.

Very wide. The p10 simulated season is 12.0 points; the p90 is 164.9 points. The gap between those two percentiles is roughly 153 points, which means the difference between a bust and a useful contributor is substantial. The median outcome is 74.9 points.