#154 overall · SF · 241.6 projected half-PPR pts · -25.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 105.0
Brock Purdy — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Purdy's three-year averages tell a coherent story: 394.3 pass attempts, 268.3 completions, 3,437 passing yards, 23.7 passing touchdowns, and 3.3 rushing touchdowns per season. The rushing dimension has grown — he went from 39 carries for 144 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2023 to 66 carries for 323 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2024, adding a floor that a pure pocket passer doesn't carry. His 2025 line was condensed — 284 attempts, 2,167 yards, 20 touchdowns — but his per-attempt efficiency held: 197 completions on 284 tries is a 69.4% completion rate, and he threw only 10 interceptions against 20 touchdowns. The turnover picture has also improved; he lost just 2 fumbles in 2025 after losing 2 in 2023 and 3 in 2024. If you want a QB12 with a rushing floor and a clean recent turnover profile, the case is straightforward.
What the model projects
The projection is 241.6 half-PPR fantasy points, placing Purdy QB12 and #154 overall. His draft value is -25.8, meaning he projects below replacement level at the quarterback position on a 12-team half-PPR baseline. He sits in Tier 9 on the overall board. His bye week is Week 8.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 444 | 308 | 4280 | 31 | 11 | 39 | 144 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 306.6 |
| 2024 | 455 | 300 | 3864 | 20 | 12 | 66 | 323 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 278.9 |
| 2025 | 284 | 197 | 2167 | 20 | 10 | 33 | 147 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 185.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 394.3 | 268.3 | 3437 | 23.7 | 11 | 46 | 204.7 | 3.3 | — | — | — | — | 5.3 | — | — | 261.5 |
The range of outcomes
Purdy's three-year history shows real variance. His 2023 season produced 4,280 passing yards and 31 passing touchdowns; his 2024 line was 3,864 yards and 20 passing touchdowns; his 2025 season came in at 2,167 yards and 20 passing touchdowns on a sharply reduced attempt volume. That spread — from a full, high-volume season to a condensed one — is the honest range of outcomes you're buying. The rushing contribution adds upside: 323 yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground in 2024 is a meaningful ceiling boost, while 2025's 147 rush yards and 3 touchdowns on 33 attempts represents the floor of that dimension. Interceptions have trended in the right direction (11 in 2023, 12 in 2024, 10 in 2025), but fumbles remain a factor — he has averaged 5.3 per season over the past three years.
How to draft him
The market is currently taking Purdy at pick 105.0 — round 9, pick 9 in a 12-team draft (based on a median across two platforms). Our projection has him at QB12 and #154 overall with a draft value of -25.8. If you're running a strategy that waits on quarterback, round 9 is when you'd need to commit to get him. His Week 8 bye is worth noting for lineup planning.
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Questions drafters ask
The market is currently taking him at pick 105 — round 9, pick 9 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms.
The projection is 241.6 half-PPR fantasy points, which ranks him QB12 and #154 overall with a draft value of -25.8 against a 12-team half-PPR replacement baseline.
Yes. He has averaged 46 rush attempts, 204.7 rush yards, and 3.3 rush touchdowns per season over the past three years. His 2024 season was the high-water mark: 66 carries, 323 yards, and 5 rushing touchdowns.
His interception totals have been 11 (2023), 12 (2024), and 10 (2025). Fumbles have averaged 5.3 per season over that span, though fumbles lost have been lower — 2, 3, and 2 in those same years.