#109 overall · SF · 247.1 projected half-PPR pts · -12.1 Draft Value · Market ADP 106.0
Brock Purdy — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Purdy's 2023 season is the ceiling argument in one line: 4,280 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns, and 308 completions on 444 attempts. That is a legitimate QB1 season, and it happened. His three-year averages back it up as a floor check: 3,437 passing yards, 23.7 passing touchdowns, and 11 interceptions per season across 2023-2025. The rushing contribution has grown, too. He ran 66 times for 323 yards and 5 rushing touchdowns in 2024, up sharply from 39 carries and 144 yards in 2023. The three-year average of 46 rush attempts and 204.7 rush yards adds a scoring dimension that pure pocket passers at this position rank do not always carry. If the 2023 version shows up, the upside is real.
What the model projects
The projection is 247.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That places Purdy at QB10 and #109 overall in Tier 9. His draft value sits at -12.1, meaning the projection lands just below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 247.1 is the headline number to anchor on.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 444 | 308 | 4280 | 31 | 11 | 39 | 144 | 2 | 6 | 306.6 |
| 2024 | 455 | 300 | 3864 | 20 | 12 | 66 | 323 | 5 | 7 | 278.9 |
| 2025 | 284 | 197 | 2167 | 20 | 10 | 33 | 147 | 3 | 3 | 185.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 394.3 | 268.3 | 3437 | 23.7 | 11 | 46 | 204.7 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 261.5 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, and that width is the central fact about Purdy as a fantasy asset. The median simulated season lands at 236.6 points, close to but slightly below the point estimate of 247.1. A bad season, bottom 10 percent of simulations, produces just 96.6 points. A good season, top 10 percent, reaches 358.5 points. The 25th-to-75th-percentile range runs from 177.3 to 303.7 points, a span of more than 126 points. That is a lot of variance to absorb from a quarterback drafted as a secondary starter or streamer. The 2025 season illustrates the downside concretely: 2,167 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, and 284 attempts in a shortened campaign. The 2023 season illustrates the upside just as concretely. Both outcomes live inside this band.
(bottom 10%)
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our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Purdy going at pick 9.10 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. Our rankings place him at #109 overall and QB10. In a late-round quarterback strategy, Purdy fits the profile of a high-variance dart throw: the upside is genuine, the floor is low, and the bye week falls in Week 8, which requires roster planning. Draft him as a QB2 or a streamer target in the ninth round, and have a contingency in place for the weeks his floor shows up instead of his ceiling.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 247.1 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks QB10 by draft value and #109 overall in Tier 9.
The band runs from 96.6 points at the 10th percentile to 358.5 at the 90th percentile. The 25th-to-75th range alone spans 177.3 to 303.7 points. The 2025 season, which produced 2,167 passing yards and 20 passing touchdowns in 284 attempts, is a real-world reference for what the lower end of that band looks like.
Market ADP puts him at pick 9.10 in a 12-team draft, a median drawn from two platforms. Plan accordingly if you want him as your quarterback.
There is some. Purdy averaged 46 rush attempts and 204.7 rush yards per season over the last three years, with a peak of 66 attempts, 323 yards, and 5 rushing touchdowns in 2024. It is a real contribution, but it has not been consistent enough across all three seasons to treat as a reliable floor on its own.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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