#13 overall · ARI · 208.0 projected half-PPR pts · +80.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 28.4
Jeremiyah Love — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jeremiyah Love lands at RB9 and #13 overall in a Tier 3 grouping that carries a draft value of +80.8 points above replacement. That surplus is real and it is positive, which means Love projects to deliver meaningful value beyond what a drafter could expect from a replacement-level back. For a position as volatile as running back, a surplus of that size in the double digits is a concrete reason to target him. His bye falls on Week 14, deep enough into the season that it will not cost a drafter a meaningful regular-season week in most league formats.
What the model projects
The projection for Love is 208.0 half-PPR fantasy points. That is the headline number: a single-season point estimate that places him at RB9 among all running backs and #13 overall across every position. The +80.8 draft value confirms he sits comfortably above the replacement threshold at his position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is worth understanding before drafting Love. In the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons, he finishes at 111.3 points. The 25th percentile lands at 162.8, and the median simulated season comes in at 219.5, slightly above the point estimate of 208.0. A strong season at the 75th percentile produces 267.8 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated outcomes reaches 301.0. The spread from p10 to p90 runs nearly 190 points, a reminder that the upside is genuine but the floor carries real risk. Drafters should price in both ends of that band, not just the median.
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our projection
How to draft him
The market is currently taking Love at pick 28.4 on average, which works out to the 4th pick of the 3rd round in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the practical reality: if you want Love, you need to be ready to spend a third-round pick. His rank is #13 overall and RB9. Plan your first two picks with the understanding that Love will likely be gone before your third-round selection arrives, and adjust your draft board accordingly if he is a target.
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Questions drafters ask
Based on a market ADP of 28.4 across two platforms, Love is going in the 3rd round, 4th pick (3.04) in a 12-team snake draft. Plan to spend a third-round selection if he is on your target list.
The projection is 208.0 half-PPR fantasy points, placing him at RB9 and #13 overall with a draft value of +80.8 points above replacement level.
The simulated season band runs from 111.3 points at the 10th percentile to 301.0 at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 219.5 points. The spread is wide, so both a disappointing season and a standout one are within the realistic range of outcomes.
Love's bye is Week 14, which falls late in the fantasy regular season and minimizes the scheduling impact for most league formats.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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