#39 overall · TB · 144.3 projected half-PPR pts · +27.4 Draft Value · Market ADP 46.1
Bucky Irving — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Bucky Irving put together a legitimate workhorse season in 2024 — 207 rush attempts, 1,122 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, and 47 receptions on 52 targets. That receiving role is real: he caught 90% of his targets and added 392 receiving yards, giving him a three-dimensional profile that holds value in half-PPR formats. The 2025 season was shorter on volume — 173 carries, 588 rushing yards — but he still contributed 30 receptions, 277 receiving yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns, keeping his pass-game involvement intact. Over the three-year window from 2023–2025, he averaged 190 rush attempts, 855 rushing yards, 38.5 receptions, and 334.5 receiving yards per season. That's a back who has demonstrated he can carry a full workload and catch the ball out of the backfield. His bye is Week 10, which is manageable. Irving sits in Tier 6 on the board with a positive draft value of +27.4 — he projects above replacement level at the running back position.
What the model projects
The model projects Irving at 144.3 half-PPR fantasy points this season. That projection places him #39 overall and RB16 at his position. His draft value of +27.4 reflects a meaningful surplus above the replacement-level running back in a 12-team half-PPR league. He sits in Tier 6, a cluster of backs whose projected value lands in a similar band on the overall board.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 1122 | 8 | 52 | 47 | 392 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 220.9 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 173 | 588 | 1 | 35 | 30 | 277 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 123.5 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 190 | 855 | 4.5 | 43.5 | 38.5 | 334.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | — | — | 174.2 |
The range of outcomes
Irving's season-to-season history already illustrates the variance baked into his profile. In 2024 he posted 1,122 rushing yards and 8 rushing touchdowns on 207 carries; in 2025 those numbers compressed to 588 rushing yards and 1 rushing touchdown on 173 carries, though his receiving touchdowns climbed to 3. The three-year averages — 190 carries, 855 rushing yards, 4.5 rushing touchdowns, 38.5 receptions, 334.5 receiving yards, 1.5 receiving touchdowns — sit comfortably between those two poles and represent a reasonable central expectation. The upside case looks like the 2024 line: heavy carry volume, a full complement of rushing scores, and a reliable check-down role. The downside case looks more like 2025: reduced rushing production and touchdown regression, partially offset by receiving contributions. He has fumbled in both seasons (2 in 2024, 1 in 2025, losing 1 each year), a minor but real risk to playing time.
How to draft him
Irving's market ADP is 46.1, which works out to pick 4.10 in a 12-team snake draft — that is when you would need to spend a pick to secure him. Our model has him at #39 overall and RB16. Plan your board accordingly: if you want Irving, the fourth round is where the market is currently pricing him. His Week 10 bye is worth noting for roster management purposes — make sure you have coverage at running back for that week.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2024 Irving carried the ball 207 times for 1,122 rushing yards and 8 rushing touchdowns. He also caught 47 of 52 targets for 392 receiving yards, giving him a full three-down profile in Tampa Bay's offense.
The model projects Irving at 144.3 half-PPR fantasy points, placing him #39 overall and RB16. His draft value of +27.4 means he projects above replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR league.
His market ADP is 46.1 — pick 4.10 in a 12-team snake draft. That is the round and pick where he is currently being taken across public drafts, so plan to spend a fourth-round selection if you want him on your roster.
His 2025 season is the clearest downside reference point: 173 carries, 588 rushing yards, and just 1 rushing touchdown, though he added 3 receiving touchdowns to partially offset the rushing regression. He also lost a fumble in both 2024 and 2025, which is a recurring risk to his snap share.