Omarion Hampton — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Omarion Hampton's 2025 season was a rookie campaign in a limited role: 124 rush attempts, 545 rush yards, 4 rushing touchdowns, 32 receptions on 35 targets, and 192 receiving yards. The receiving profile is the detail worth sitting with. A 91.4% catch rate on 35 targets tells you Hampton was a reliable outlet in the passing game from the jump, not just a between-the-tackles back learning the position. The combined ground-and-air footprint gives him a path to a full workload, and the projection reflects that ceiling. At RB17 with a draftValue of +48.9, he projects above replacement level at the position. Tier 5 is where he lives in the current rankings, and the number says he belongs there with room to grow.

What the model projects

The projection for Hampton is 177.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits him at #27 overall and RB17. His draftValue is +48.9, meaning he projects nearly 49 points above the replacement-level running back in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season lands at 188.6 points, a touch above the point estimate, which reflects a distribution that skews slightly toward the upside. The projection is the headline number; the median outcome is close but not identical, and both are worth knowing.

The range of outcomes

Hampton carries real variance. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons produces 80.3 points, a number that reflects how quickly a running back's season can compress. The 25th percentile is 131.9 points, still a meaningful step below the projection. On the other side, the 75th percentile reaches 236.9 points and the top 10% of outcomes climbs to 270.1. That is a spread of roughly 190 points from the floor to the ceiling, which is wide. The upside case is a back who clears 270 points in half-PPR; the downside case is a back who barely clears 80. His 2025 stat line, the only professional history available, is a single season of data, and that limited track record is part of what drives the width of the band. Drafters should price in both tails.

How to draft him

Hampton's market ADP is 19.6, drawn from two platforms, which translates to pick 2.08 in a 12-team snake draft. That means the market is taking him in the second round, eighth pick of that round. His bye is Week 7, which is early enough that it rarely forces a roster crisis but is worth noting when building depth. He ranks #27 overall and RB17 in this model. If you want him, the market is pricing him as a second-round commitment, and that is the window you are working with.

His entire professional stat line comes from 2025: 124 rush attempts, 545 rush yards, 4 rushing touchdowns, 32 receptions, 192 receiving yards, and 1 receiving touchdown. The three-year aggregate matches the single-season line exactly, confirming 2025 is his only NFL season on record.

Yes. In 2025 he saw 35 targets and caught 32 of them for 192 yards and 1 receiving touchdown. That catch rate and target volume from a single season suggest he was used as a genuine receiving option, not just a checkdown safety valve.

The 10th-percentile simulated season is 80.3 half-PPR points. The 25th percentile is 131.9. The band is wide, so a bad outcome is meaningfully bad. Drafters taking him in the second round should be comfortable with that floor before committing the pick.

The 90th-percentile simulated season is 270.1 half-PPR points. The 75th percentile is 236.9. The point estimate is 177.1 and the median simulated season is 188.6, so the upside tail is considerably higher than the central projection.