#34 overall · DAL · 166.4 projected half-PPR pts · +39.3 Draft Value · Market ADP 33.2
Javonte Williams — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Javonte Williams put together his best season on record in 2025: 252 rush attempts, 1,201 rushing yards, and 11 rushing touchdowns, adding 35 receptions for 137 yards and 2 receiving scores. That touchdown total is more than double anything he posted in either of the two prior seasons, and the carry volume was the heaviest of the three-year window. The receiving role has been consistent across all three years, averaging nearly 60 targets and 44.7 receptions per season over that stretch. Williams now lands in Dallas with a track record of handling a full workload and finishing in the end zone at a high rate. His draftValue sits at +39.3, meaning the projection puts him well above replacement level at the running back position. He is RB20 and #34 overall, placing him in Tier 6 of the rankings.
What the model projects
The projection for Williams is 166.4 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits below his 2025 actual production, which reflects the full picture of his three-year history rather than a single peak season. Over 2023 through 2025, his per-season averages are 202.7 rush attempts, 829.3 rushing yards, 6 rushing touchdowns, 59.7 targets, 44.7 receptions, 237 receiving yards, and 1.3 receiving touchdowns. The 2025 season was the high-water mark; the 2023 and 2024 lines were considerably lighter. The projection at 166.4 points reflects that full body of work. His bye week is Week 14.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 217 | 774 | 3 | 58 | 47 | 228 | 2 | 1 | 151.7 |
| 2024 | 139 | 513 | 4 | 70 | 52 | 346 | — | 2 | 131.9 |
| 2025 | 252 | 1201 | 11 | 51 | 35 | 137 | 2 | 2 | 225.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 202.7 | 829.3 | 6 | 59.7 | 44.7 | 237 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 172.8 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band for Williams is wide. The bottom 10% of outcomes lands at 70.7 points, a floor that reflects how badly a season can go. The 25th percentile is 121.2 points, still a meaningful step below the projection. The median simulated season comes in at 177.3 points, close to but slightly above the 166.4 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 225.5 points, and the top 10% of outcomes climbs to 259.3 points. That spread from p10 to p90 covers nearly 189 points, which signals real variance in how his season could unfold. The upside case is a legitimate RB1 season; the downside case is a near-total loss of value. Drafters should go in with eyes open on both ends.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Williams is being drafted at an average pick of 33.2 across two platforms, which works out to pick 3.09 in a 12-team snake draft. That is a third-round commitment. His ranking is #34 overall and RB20, so the market and the model are closely aligned on where he sits. If you want him, the third round is when you need to spend the pick. Given the width of his outcome band, pairing him with a safer floor elsewhere on the roster is a reasonable construction. His Week 14 bye is late enough that it rarely disrupts playoff runs, which is a quiet scheduling advantage worth noting.
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Questions drafters ask
He carried the ball 252 times for 1,201 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns, adding 35 receptions on 51 targets for 137 receiving yards and 2 more scores. It was the strongest season of his three-year recorded history by a wide margin.
The projection is 166.4 half-PPR fantasy points. That is below his 2025 output, which is consistent with his three-year averages of 202.7 rush attempts, 829.3 rushing yards, and 6 rushing touchdowns per season.
The simulated season band runs from 70.7 points at the 10th percentile to 259.3 points at the 90th percentile. The median outcome is 177.3 points. The top-end case is a genuine RB1 season; the bottom-end case is near-zero fantasy value.
The market ADP is 33.2, which translates to pick 3.09 in a 12-team draft. If you want him, you are spending a third-round pick. His ranking is #34 overall and RB20.
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Beyond the numbers
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