Jake Tonges — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Jake Tonges put together a 2025 season that represents the entirety of his NFL receiving history: 46 targets, 34 receptions, 293 yards, and 5 touchdowns for San Francisco. The touchdown rate relative to his target volume is the most compelling number in his profile. Five scores on 46 looks is a rate that keeps him relevant in half-PPR formats even without a heavy workload. If that red-zone role holds or expands, the upside is real. His bye is Week 8, which is manageable in most league structures.

What the model projects

The projection is 32.8 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. That puts Tonges at TE51 and #326 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -86.9, which means the projection sits below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The headline number is modest, and the rank reflects that plainly.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide, which is the defining feature of Tonges as a fantasy asset. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons land at 1.8 points; the 25th percentile is 10.5. The median simulated season comes in at 27.3 points, below the 32.8 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 50.5 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at 77.6. That upper tail, driven by touchdown variance, is the only scenario in which Tonges returns meaningful fantasy value. The floor is essentially zero.

How to draft him

Tonges does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being consistently drafted on the platforms that feed this data. In a standard 12-team snake draft, he is a late-round or post-draft addition at best. His value, if any, comes from a roster spot in deeper leagues or as a speculative add off the waiver wire. At TE51 with a negative draft value, he is not a player to spend a meaningful pick on. Monitor his role heading into the season; if the target and touchdown opportunity clarifies upward, the calculus changes.

At TE51 and #326 overall with a draft value of -86.9, the projection places him below replacement level at tight end. He does not have a consistent market ADP across public drafts. He is not a player to spend a pick on in standard formats; deeper leagues or waiver wire speculation are the appropriate contexts.

In 2025, his only season of NFL receiving production, he caught 5 touchdowns on 46 targets. That touchdown rate is the core of any optimistic case for him. The p90 simulated season reaches 77.6 half-PPR points, almost entirely dependent on that red-zone role continuing at a similar or better rate.

Very wide. The p10 simulated season is 1.8 points and the p90 is 77.6 points, a spread of 75.8 points across the band. The median simulated season is 27.3 points. The floor is near zero and the ceiling is a function of touchdown variance.

He has no consistent market ADP in public 2026 drafts, so there is no established draft slot to plan around. In practice, he is a post-draft or late-round consideration rather than a player to target with a specific pick.