#949 overall · ARI · 42.8 projected half-PPR pts · -205.0 Draft Value
Carson Beck — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
There is not much of one, and the numbers say so plainly. Carson Beck lands at QB45 and #948 overall in a Tier 9 placement, with a draft value of -211.1. That figure sits below replacement level at the quarterback position, meaning the projection does not see him contributing surplus fantasy value in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. His bye falls in Week 14, which compounds the difficulty of building a roster around him. In most snake drafts, Beck is a name to know rather than a name to spend a pick on.
What the model projects
The projection is 42.8 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. That is a low headline number for a quarterback, and it reflects a profile that does not currently support a meaningful fantasy workload. The draft value of -211.1 confirms he projects below the replacement threshold at his position. At QB45, he sits deep in the positional rankings with no path to relevance in the projection as it stands.
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide and skewed heavily toward the low end. The p10 is 0.0 points, meaning the worst 10 percent of simulated seasons produce essentially nothing. The p25 is 2.5 points and the median simulated season lands at just 8.3 points. The p75 reaches 35.3 and the p90 climbs to 96.5, which shows there is a tail of upside scenarios, but the central tendency of the distribution sits far below fantasy-relevant territory. Most simulated seasons end with Beck contributing very little.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
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our projection
How to draft him
Beck does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being selected consistently enough to register a median draft position. In practical terms, he is a waiver-wire name in most formats. There is no pick to budget for him. If a deep-league or streaming situation ever makes him relevant, he should be available off the wire rather than on your draft-day list.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection of 42.8 points and a draft value of -211.1 put him at QB45 and #948 overall in Tier 9. He has no market ADP across public drafts, meaning he is not being selected consistently enough to register one. There is no case for spending a pick on him in standard formats.
The p90 of the outcome band is 96.5 half-PPR points, representing the top 10 percent of simulated seasons. That is the ceiling the projection sees. The median simulated season is 8.3 points and the p25 is just 2.5, so the upside tail is real but the central outcomes are well below fantasy-relevant levels.
He is on bye in Week 14, which is a late-season week. For any drafter considering him as a streamer or handcuff, that timing is worth noting when constructing a roster.
The band runs from 0.0 points at the p10 to 96.5 at the p90. The p25 is 2.5 and the p75 is 35.3, with a median of 8.3. That is a very wide spread concentrated at the low end, reflecting significant uncertainty about whether he sees meaningful playing time at all.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.