#162 overall · DET · 137.4 projected half-PPR pts · -31.9 Draft Value · Market ADP 148.2
Jake Bates — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jake Bates has back-to-back seasons of 26 and 27 made field goals, with a three-year average of 26.5 makes on 31.5 attempts. The long-range work stands out: he connected on 7 field goals from 40-49 yards and 6 from 50-plus in 2024, then followed with 9 from 40-49 and 4 from 50-plus in 2025. Detroit's offense generates extra-point volume, too, with 67 attempts in 2024 and 56 in 2025. The three-year average of 59 extra points made on 61.5 attempts reflects a consistent workload. For a kicker, that combination of volume and distance is the foundation of fantasy production.
What the model projects
The projection is 137.4 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season lands at 146.5 points, which sits above the point estimate. Bates ranks K7 at his position and #162 overall, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -31.9, meaning the projection falls below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
| FG | FGM | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | 3 | 64 | 158.0 |
| 2025 | 27 | 5 | 54 | 147.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 26.5 | 4 | 59 | 55.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band runs from 105.4 points at the 10th percentile to 163.5 at the 90th. A typical season, the 50th percentile, comes in at 146.5 points. The 25th percentile is 125.8 and the 75th is 157.1. That spread from floor to ceiling is roughly 58 points, which reflects the inherent variance in kicker scoring. The upside scenario, top 10% of simulated seasons, is 163.5 points; the downside scenario, bottom 10%, is 105.4. Bates's bye falls in Week 6, which is worth noting for roster management.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP on Bates is 148.2, which works out to pick 13.04 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. He ranks #162 overall by draft value. In practice, that means the market is taking him in the 13th round. Kickers are typically the last position filled, and his K7 rank gives drafters a clear sense of where he sits within the position. Wait until the final rounds and monitor how the kicker run unfolds ahead of your pick.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
He made 6 field goals from 50-plus yards in 2024 and 4 in 2025, while connecting on 7 from 40-49 in 2024 and 9 in 2025. That is 13 makes from 40 yards or beyond in 2024 and 13 again in 2025.
The projection is 137.4 half-PPR fantasy points. The simulated season band runs from 105.4 at the 10th percentile to 163.5 at the 90th, with a median of 146.5.
Market ADP is 148.2, which translates to pick 13.04 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That puts him firmly in the 13th round.
Over the 2023-2025 window, he averaged 26.5 field goals made, 31.5 attempts, and 59 extra points on 61.5 attempts per season, with an average of 4 misses. His draft value is -31.9, which means the projection sits below replacement level at kicker in a 12-team half-PPR format.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
Get the book on your rivals →