#144 overall · WAS · 95.2 projected half-PPR pts · -21.7 Draft Value · Market ADP 116.7
Jacory Croskey-Merritt — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jacory Croskey-Merritt put together a legitimate NFL season in 2025: 175 carries, 805 rushing yards, and 8 rushing touchdowns for Washington. That touchdown rate on a workhorse-adjacent carry load is real production, not a fluke of volume. He added 9 receptions on 13 targets for 68 receiving yards, showing he can contribute in the passing game even if that role remains limited. The 3-year aggregate stats are identical to his 2025 line, which tells you everything you need to know — this is a player who arrived and delivered immediately. For a drafter hunting late-round upside at running back, that 2025 résumé is the foundation.
What the model projects
The projection for Croskey-Merritt is 95.2 half-PPR fantasy points in 2026. His draft value sits at -21.7, placing him RB36 and #144 overall — Tier 9 on the board. A negative draft value means the projection lands below replacement level at the running back position in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. Washington's bye week falls in Week 7.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 805 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 68 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 135.8 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 175 | 805 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 68 | — | 3 | — | — | 139.8 |
The range of outcomes
The fumble column deserves attention before anything else: 3 fumbles and 2 lost in 2025. That is a real risk factor baked into the profile. On the upside, 8 rushing touchdowns on 175 attempts shows he can find the end zone at a strong rate, and touchdowns are the most volatile — and most rewarding — component of a running back's fantasy line. A season where the carries expand and the fumbles regress could push his point total meaningfully above the 95.2 projection. A season where the fumbles persist or the workload contracts would push it well below. The receiving role (13 targets, 9 receptions in 2025) is modest; a larger pass-game role would add a floor that isn't currently priced into the projection.
How to draft him
The market is currently taking Croskey-Merritt at pick 10.09 in 12-team drafts — that is the median across two platforms, so treat it as a directional signal rather than a hard consensus. Our model has him at #144 overall. If you want him, the tenth round is where you'll need to spend the pick. At that stage of the draft, RB36 is a depth or handcuff-tier selection. Target him as a late-round stash if you've already secured your starting running back core, and keep the fumble history in mind when weighing him against other options at that stage of your board.
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Questions drafters ask
He carried the ball 175 times for 805 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns, caught 9 of 13 targets for 68 yards, and scored no receiving touchdowns. He also fumbled 3 times and lost 2.
The projection is 95.2 half-PPR fantasy points. That puts him at RB36 and #144 overall with a draft value of -21.7, meaning he projects below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
The market median across two platforms has him going at pick 10.09 in a 12-team draft — the tenth round. Plan accordingly if he's on your target list.
They're worth noting. Croskey-Merritt had 3 fumbles and lost 2 of them in 2025 — his only NFL season on record. That's a real part of his profile and a risk that comes with the territory when drafting him.