#121 overall · WAS · 111.6 projected half-PPR pts · -16.9 Draft Value · Market ADP 100.1
Jacory Croskey-Merritt — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jacory Croskey-Merritt's 2025 season is the entirety of his NFL statistical record, and it was a productive one on the ground. He carried the ball 175 times for 805 rushing yards and scored 8 rushing touchdowns. That touchdown rate on a modest attempt total is the clearest argument in his favor. Washington gave him a real workload, and he converted it into scoring production at a rate that matters in half-PPR formats. His bye falls in Week 7, which is early enough that managers can plan around it without much disruption.
What the model projects
The projection is 111.6 half-PPR fantasy points. That places Croskey-Merritt at RB33 and #121 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -16.9, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season, at 113.9 points, sits close to the point estimate, which signals a relatively symmetric distribution around the projection.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 175 | 805 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 68 | 3 | 135.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 175 | 805 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 68 | 3 | 139.8 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 33.2 points, a number that reflects how quickly a running back's value can evaporate. The 25th percentile lands at 66.9 points, still a difficult fantasy season. The median is 113.9 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 158.4 points and the 90th percentile climbs to 202.2 points. That top-decile outcome is a genuinely useful fantasy season. The gap between the floor and the ceiling here is among the widest in the data, which is consistent with a back whose role and volume could shift significantly. His 2025 fumble total, 3 fumbles with 2 lost on 175 carries, is a real risk factor embedded in that floor.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
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our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP based on two platforms puts Croskey-Merritt at pick 100.1, which translates to the 9th round, 4th pick in a 12-team draft. The model has him at #121 overall and RB33. If you want him, Round 9 is when you need to spend the pick. At that stage of the draft, the question is whether his touchdown upside and the chance at a larger role justify the selection over other late-round options at the position. His receiving work in 2025 was limited, 9 receptions on 13 targets for 68 yards, so his fantasy ceiling in this format leans heavily on continued rushing volume and touchdown efficiency.
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Questions drafters ask
He carried the ball 175 times for 805 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns. In the passing game he saw 13 targets, caught 9 passes, and gained 68 receiving yards. He also fumbled 3 times, losing 2.
The projection is 111.6 half-PPR fantasy points. That ranks him RB33 and #121 overall, placing him in Tier 9 with a draft value of -16.9.
The band runs from 33.2 points at the 10th percentile to 202.2 points at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 113.9 points. The floor is very low and the ceiling is a legitimately useful fantasy season, so the range of outcomes is substantial.
Market ADP across two platforms is 100.1, which works out to Round 9, pick 4 in a 12-team draft. That is when you would need to spend a pick to secure him.
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Beyond the numbers
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