#247 overall · KC · 49.8 projected half-PPR pts · -62.2 Draft Value
Noah Gray — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Noah Gray has held a consistent role in Kansas City's offense across three seasons. He's seen at least 37 targets in each of the last three years, averaging 42.3 targets, 29.7 receptions, and 306.7 receiving yards per season over that stretch. His best season came in 2024, when he turned 49 targets into 40 receptions, 437 yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns — a legitimate TE2-range output. He's proven he can catch touchdowns in volume when the opportunities align, and he remains attached to one of the NFL's most efficient passing offenses. For a drafter who needs a late-roster flier at tight end, Gray's established role in KC is the foundation of any argument.
What the model projects
The projection for Gray in 2026 is 49.8 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -62.2, meaning the projection falls below replacement level at the tight end position. He ranks TE36 and #247 overall, placing him in Tier 9 on the board. Kansas City's bye week is Week 5.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 41 | 28 | 305 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 56.6 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 49 | 40 | 437 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 93.3 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 21 | 178 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28.3 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 0.7 | -1 | — | 42.3 | 29.7 | 306.7 | 2.3 | — | — | 59.2 |
The range of outcomes
Gray's recent history illustrates exactly how wide his outcome band can run. In 2024 he posted 437 yards and 5 touchdowns on 49 targets; in 2025 he managed 178 yards, 0 touchdowns, and just 21 receptions on 37 targets. Those two seasons alone capture the poles of what he can deliver — a serviceable streaming option in a touchdown-heavy year, or a near-zero contributor when the scores don't come. His three-year average of 2.3 receiving touchdowns per season reflects that volatility. The projection of 49.8 points sits closer to the floor than the ceiling, and the gap between his best and worst recent seasons is substantial.
How to draft him
Gray is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. That means there is no pick cost to plan around — he is available as a free agent in most draft rooms, or at worst a deep late-round add. At TE36 and #247 overall in Tier 9, the model places him well outside the range of draftable tight ends. The correct approach is to let the draft play out, secure your starting tight end earlier, and only circle back to Gray if you need a zero-cost depth piece or a streaming option tied to Kansas City's offense.
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Questions drafters ask
The model projects him at 49.8 fantasy points with a draft value of -62.2, placing him below replacement level at TE. He ranks TE36 and #247 overall in Tier 9. He is not a recommended draft target at the tight end position.
His best recent season was 2024: 40 receptions, 437 yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns on 49 targets. That represents his ceiling. His 2025 season produced 21 receptions, 178 yards, and 0 touchdowns on 37 targets — that is his floor. The three-year averages are 29.7 receptions, 306.7 yards, and 2.3 touchdowns per season.
Gray does not have a market ADP — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to establish one. There is no pick you need to spend to secure him; he should be available after drafts conclude or very late in deep leagues.
He has seen 41, 49, and 37 targets in 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, for a three-year average of 42.3 targets per season. The volume has been relatively stable, but his touchdown production swung from 5 in 2024 to 0 in 2025, which drives most of the variance in his fantasy output.