Noah Gray — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Noah Gray has logged three consecutive seasons as a target in Kansas City's offense. His 2024 season was his clearest statistical peak: 49 targets, 40 receptions, 437 receiving yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns. That touchdown total is the most meaningful number in his favor. The three-year average of 42.3 targets and 2.3 receiving touchdowns per season shows a player with a defined, if modest, role. For a drafter building out a deep roster, that role is real.

What the model projects

The projection is 37.9 half-PPR fantasy points. Gray sits at TE45 and #303 overall, in Tier 9. His draft value is -81.9, which places him below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. These numbers reflect a player at the back end of the positional rankings, not a starter in most league formats.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. The p10 is 4.1 points, meaning 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or below that floor. The p25 sits at 14.6 points. The median simulated season lands at 33.6 points, slightly below the 37.9 point projection. The p75 is 57.6 points and the p90 reaches 88.3 points, meaning roughly one in ten simulated seasons produces a genuinely useful fantasy output. That upside exists, but the distribution skews heavily toward low-end outcomes. The 2025 season, in which Gray posted 37 targets, 21 receptions, and 178 receiving yards with no receiving touchdowns recorded in the FACTS, illustrates how quickly the floor can arrive.

How to draft him

Gray is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. That tells you everything about his current standing in public drafts. At TE45 and #303 overall, he is a late-roster addition at best, a streaming option in deeper leagues, or a handcuff for managers who already have a Kansas City stake. His bye is Week 5, which is worth noting when constructing a roster. Do not spend a meaningful pick here expecting a weekly starter; his role and projection do not support that use of draft capital.

At TE45 and #303 overall with a projection of 37.9 half-PPR points and a draft value of -81.9, Gray projects below replacement level at the position. He is not a recommended starting tight end in a standard 12-team format.

Gray posted 49 targets, 40 receptions, 437 yards, and 5 touchdowns in 2024. In 2025 those numbers dropped to 37 targets, 21 receptions, 178 yards, with no receiving touchdowns recorded. His three-year averages are 42.3 targets, 29.7 receptions, 306.7 yards, and 2.3 receiving touchdowns per season.

The p90 outcome across simulated seasons is 88.3 half-PPR points, meaning roughly one in ten simulated seasons reaches that level. The p75 is 57.6 points. Those are the ceilings the model sees. The p50 median is 33.6 points, and the p10 floor is 4.1 points, so the distribution leans heavily toward the low end.

Gray does not have a market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. He is a late-roster or waiver-wire consideration, not a player who requires a committed pick in most draft strategies.