#337 overall · HOU · 36.9 projected half-PPR pts · -78.4 Draft Value
Jaylin Noel — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jaylin Noel is a Houston wide receiver with a 2025 stat line of 26 receptions on 35 targets for 292 yards and 2 receiving touchdowns, plus 6 rush attempts for 12 yards. That catch rate and the pair of scores show he can convert opportunities when they come his way. For a drafter building a deep roster or stashing a late-round flier, those touchdowns are the hook: two scores on 35 targets is a rate that matters if his role expands.
What the model projects
The projection is 36.9 half-PPR points for the season. His draft value is -90.8, placing him #340 overall and WR112 in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a player sitting well below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection is the headline; the rank and tier tell you where he stands relative to the rest of the field.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 35 | 26 | 292 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 55.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 35 | 26 | 292 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 55.4 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide and skewed. The median simulated season lands at 20.3 points, and the 10th-percentile floor is 0.0 points, meaning a meaningful share of simulated seasons produce essentially nothing. The 75th percentile reaches 50.2 points and the 90th percentile climbs to 88.0 points. That top-decile number is the reason a drafter might take a flier: the upside exists, but the most likely outcome is a season that barely registers on a fantasy roster.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Noel does not have a market ADP across public 2026 draft platforms, which means he is not being consistently drafted at all. He is a waiver-wire or end-of-draft name, not a pick you need to plan around. If you want him, he will almost certainly be available after your last meaningful selection. His bye is Week 8. Given his Tier 9 standing and a projection of 36.9 points, he fits only as a speculative stash on a roster that is already set at the position.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
He caught 26 passes on 35 targets for 292 receiving yards and 2 receiving touchdowns, adding 6 rush attempts for 12 yards. Those are his only seasons on record; the 2025 line is also his full three-year aggregate.
The projection is 36.9 half-PPR points. He ranks #340 overall and WR112, sitting in Tier 9 with a draft value of -90.8, which is below replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format.
The 90th-percentile simulated season reaches 88.0 points, so upside exists in the model. The 50th-percentile outcome is 20.3 points, however, and the 10th-percentile floor is 0.0 points. The range is wide and the most likely outcome is minimal fantasy production.
Noel has no market ADP across public 2026 draft platforms, meaning he is not being consistently drafted. You do not need to spend a pick on him in any planned round; he is a post-draft waiver candidate or a last-pick flier if you choose to roster him at all.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.